One of the worst traits of political punditry is the instant assessment of results. The inevitable superficial interpretations do little to aid understanding. As such, Drapier is going to refrain from commenting on yesterday's referendums save to say that he was surprised at the Yes campaign's concentration on rolling out the elites in a chorus of "If we say it's good, you should listen to us."
The No side behaved as if it were an election campaign and prospered. True, they did roll out the biggest concentration of conspiracy theorists since UFOs landed in Roswell. But they campaigned with verve and zeal and outspent the Yes campaign.
The recriminations have already started among the Yes supporters with opposition parties pointing the finger at the Government. It is a pointless exercise. Drapier too is disappointed by the result, but is of good heart as we will probably have a chance to rerun the whole thing again and hopes that all the main parties learn the lessons of June 7th well.
Some years ago Senator Fergal Quinn suggested we look again at the mechanisms we have adopted to run referendums post the McKenna judgment. Drapier suggests we revisit this debate, especially in the light of the abysmally low turnout. There must be a clear role for the political parties. As a colleague of Drapier's is fond of saying, "you can't take the politics out of politics." The UK's referendum laws permit some state funding for political party referendum campaigns, and ours should too.
The recent series of postfoot-and-mouth opinion polls give us a chance to move away from received wisdom and punditry towards a reasonably clear picture of the current state of politics. It also shows us the clear division between "official Ireland" and the public on how political events are interpreted.
No matter what way you measure it, the Government is riding high, Bertie Ahern is the most popular politician in the country and the people don't want an election. For all this, there are various clear signposts for the future for the parties and the media.
Fianna Fail has a lot to be pleased with, but has nothing to be complacent about. Never forget 1989. The public wouldn't tolerate a cut-and-run approach. With nearly a year left in office, certain key ministers need to get their act together and start acting like politicians rather than civil servants.
Where is the public demand for an Aer Lingus sell-off? Will Charlie McCreevy ever learn to talk positively about public services? The party as a whole has to start talking about what it wants to do for the next five years if given the chance. Eaten bread is soon forgotten and a list of achievements won't win an election.
For the junior partners, the polls continue to be depressing, but there is cause for hope. They have good candidates and a popular leader. What they don't have is a motivating platform. Drapier's tip to them is to realise that they will not suddenly start gaining votes by continuing with their approach of the last four years - tax cuts and occasional fights. Even their own supporters are not motivated by this.
Fine Gael has seen that the polls carried out by Jim Mitch- ell's anonymous supporters were accurate. Dumping the leader wasn't enough. The stated intention of Michael Noonan is to turn the next election into a health election. Very American indeed; frankly, it's difficult to see him pulling it off in light of the fact that he has a record to defend as minister for health. Many colleagues wonder if Finbar Fitzpatrick, Fine Gael's newly installed director of elections, will tolerate a manifesto that challenges the position of his members in the Hospital Consultants' Association.
After a full year on a focused message of attacking Bertie Ahern about corporate donations and related matters, often in very personal terms, all Labour has to show is the loss of over a quarter of its support. A new leader, a historic merger and a series of more ideological policies have failed to lift the party - but the message coming from Ely Place seems to be that they will plough on regardless.
As for the media, the polls are quite stark for the record number of political correspondents now covering national affairs. Every time a so-called "major controversy" blows up we are told it will have a significant impact on the public. With one or two notable exceptions, the public just isn't responding in the way we are told they will.
Drapier would caution journalists against the quite arrogant explanation that the public are either selfish or disinterested - maybe they just don't agree that everything has or should have a political impact? Maybe they have a more balanced approach to issues where they don't expect that everything can be done and done now? Maybe they even think that the glass is half full and filling rather than half empty?
Whatever the situation, the basic fact is that the division between how political insiders and the media on one side and the public on the other interpret events is wide and growing wider. For people like Drapier who will have to seek the public's support within the next 12 months, this is a matter of major concern.
The self-denying ordinance from instant analysis announced at the start of this column is now going to be discarded in relation to the Northern elections.
Drapier must confess to a slight conflict of interest. Drapier was most flattered to see himself quoted on the SDLP's election website. These words of praise from last September were sincerely offered at the time and are all the more relevant today.
This is why Drapier is so disappointed to see the SDLP slump in West Tyrone. Brid Rodgers has been widely acknowledged as an outstanding Minister for Agriculture, but she has suffered at the hands of a heated and vigorous Sinn Fein campaign.
The loss of West Tyrone will have a major psychological impact on SDLP and masks smaller advances elsewhere. Sinn Fein are not taking votes from the SDLP as much as they are managing to create new votes for themselves. Drapier expects to see this trend continue when district council votes are counted on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Despite DUP predictions of UUP meltdown, David Trimble has held his nerve and should now realise pro-agreement unionists demand and need confident leadership. While he has suffered some losses he can point to some successes, particularly the political demise of an arch anti-agreementite like Bob McCartney.
Notwithstanding the gains and losses on both sides, the main point to remember is that the Northern Assembly remains the only real show in town. The main pro-agreement parties still have two years until the next Assembly elections and that's when the people's real verdict will be given.
All in all, June 7th was not a great day for Yes-voting SDLP supporters. But all is far from over. As for the results - well it's like Mao's verdict on the French Revolution: "Too early to say".