A former Northern Ireland police chief has predicted that a united Ireland will emerge in about 15 years but that "it will be like Sicily" with "self-policing" by Mafia-type organisations.
Colin Cramphorn, who was the last deputy chief constable of the RUC and then acting chief constable of the new Police Service of Northern Ireland, also warned that the Provisional IRA would not "go away" or abandon its "organised criminal activity" following the formal ending of its armed campaign in Northern Ireland.
Mr Cramphorn - now chief constable of West Yorkshire - told the Yorkshire Evening Post: "This is not the end of the IRA, it is the beginning of another era of it . . . Any republican army volunteer or supporter will recognise the language of the latest IRA statement on disarmament.
"The decommissioning order was first issued in the Irish Civil War in 1923. The command was precisely the same: 'Lay down your arms'. But in this latest statement the second half of that original order was omitted. In full it reads 'Lay down your arms to fight another day'."
Now on the front line of Britain's battle with al-Qaeda-inspired terrorism, Mr Cramphorn told journalist Anne Pickles the formal ending of the IRA campaign had been "inevitable" since the 2001 attacks on the US.
"The IRA has been overtaken by world events," he said. "It knew it would be the day the Twin Towers were hit. That was the day the IRA knew the armed campaign was over. After that it became impossible for the IRA to seek and rely on support and sympathy across Europe and in America."
He does not see the present process providing a smooth transition to a "normal" democracy. "I think in about 15 or so years we will see the unification of Ireland. And it will be like Sicily.
"Already conventional crime in Belfast is lower than it is in cities like Leeds, but self-policing by a Mafia-type organisation such as the IRA tells another story - a most unpleasant one," he said.
When asked what became of "out-of-work IRA bombers" Mr Cramphorn offered an analysis which would seem to challenge prime minister Tony Blair's optimistic conduct of the resumed peace process. "A lot of men have invested their whole lives in illegal armed conflict, bomb-making and terror. They're not about to settle for pipe and slippers now," he said.
"Neither is the IRA about to go away . . . This is the most sophisticated, politically strategic organisation I know. It's a global business, it runs like clockwork - and it has pensions to pay to loyal volunteers and operatives who have given long service . . . This is not the end of the IRA, it is the beginning of another era of it."