It is a matter of time and casualties before Russia takes Grozny. A massive 100,000-strong ground force allied to cautious tactics makes the result of this section of the campaign a certainty. But when the white, blue and red tricolour of the Russian Federation is raised in the centre of the Chechen capital, the problems to be faced will be immense.
An entire community will have to be rebuilt from destruction and this for the second time in three years. A tried and trusted administration will have to be put in place and there is no sign that this will happen. All indications are that the opposite will be the case.
Moscow's political strategy appears far less developed than its military one and its reliance on pro-Moscow Chechens is, most probably, its weakest point. When the Prime Minister, Mr Vladimir Putin, announced that he had ceased to recognise the administration of the elected President, Mr Aslan Maskhadov, he made a simultaneous statement that a puppet regime installed by Russia during the last war was being re-instated.
The two most prominent figures vying for the leadership of any new administration and the privileges and patronage that leadership entails are Grozny's former mayor, Mr Beslan Gantemirov, and the former president of the Chechen State Council, Mr Malik Saidullayev.
Neither inspires confidence. Mr Gantemirov's period as may or was appalling. He ended up in prison for embezzlement of state funds - a remarkable achievement in a country in which corruption has gone largely unpunished. Released by a special decree of President Boris Yeltsin, he immediately raised a pro-Kremlin force in Chechnya.
Mr Saidullaev became a millionaire through less-than-orthodox business practices. He is a somewhat shady casino and lottery operator in Russia proper, where most other casino and lottery operators are strongly connected to the mafia.
Both these men are now in Chechnya and Mr Gantemirov has been chosen for the dubious honour of spearheading the Russian attack on the capital for which many of his volunteers are likely to pay the ultimate price.
Another leading pro-Moscow Chechen is the territory's main religious leader, Mufti Akhmed Haji Khadirov, who has been a bitter opponent of Mr Maskhadov for some time. Mr Maskhadov, the Mufti claims, is nothing more than a puppet of Chech nya's most dangerous warlord, Shamil Basayev, whose incursions into neighbouring Dagestan sparked the current conflict.
Rifts and divisions such as these are deeply ingrained in Chechen society, which, for centuries, has been based on a clan system. Mr Gantemirov, Mr Saidullaev and Mufti Kadyrov belong to clans opposed to those of Mr Maskhadov and other pro-independence leaders.
One area in the territory, Urus Martan in the east, has traditionally been pro-Russian and sup ports Moscow now as it did in the disastrous war of 1994-1996.
Those pro-Moscow Chechens who are now in the front line played no military role in the previous war and are pitted against veterans of the previous conflict and of the recent fighting in Dagestan. Their losses are likely to be severe but it can be taken for granted that Mr Gantemirov himself will survive.
The rebels, including Basayev and the mysterious Arab who goes by the name of Khattab, do not enjoy universal popularity even among the pro-independence clans. They are seen as advancing an Islamic agenda which was not present in the previous war. The presence members of the Wahhabi sect of Islam in their midst has antagonised village elders and the mystic Sufi brotherhoods which predominate in the region.
The arrival of the Wahhabites, whose sect originated in Saudi Arabia, has also put the local religious establishment and the leaders of other communities among Russia's 20 million Muslims on their guard. Mufti Kadyrov has been joined in his denunciation of the rebels not only by his religious brethren in Russia but by other leaders in former Soviet Central Asia republics, such as Uzbekistan.
In Kazan, about 300 miles east of Moscow, the local Tatar President, Mr Minitimer Shaimiyev, has ensured that no Wahhabi groups can operate on his territory. "We had Wahhabi groups here but we threw them out. It may not have been a very democratic move but it worked," Mr Shaimiyev's chief political adviser, Mr Raphael Hakimov, told The Irish Times.
It can be seen from this that the re-establishment of anything resembling normal life in Chechnya will be a difficult and complex process. It is hard to imagine any group less capable of doing this than the band of ruffians Mr Yeltsin and Mr Putin intend to put in power.
Seamus Martin can be contacted by e-mail at: seamus.martin@russia.com