WITH two months to go to the Israeli elections on May 29th, opinion polls are showing the Prime Minister, Mr Shimon Peres, firming up his lead over the opposition Likud leader, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu.
Polls published yesterday gave Mr Peres anywhere between a two to six point lead, less than three weeks after a spate of suicide bombings by Hamas militants had wiped out a double digit advantage he held over Mr Netanyahu.
While a poll in the daily Yediot Aharonot shows Mr Peres holding on to a slender two point advantage (49 to 47 per cent), a survey in the daily Ma'ariv gives him a healthy six point lead (49 to 43), as opposed to only two points last week. A poll on Israel Television's Channel One, which a week ago had shown Mr Peres and Mr Netanyahu neck and neck, now shows Mr Peres with 49 per cent and Mr Netanyahu 46.
The anti terror summit in Sharem al-Sheikh earlier this month, when Mr Peres was seen meeting with leaders from 13 different Arab states, has clearly helped him to rebound in the polls. But it is the harsh punitive measures he has taken against the Palestinians in the wake of the suicide bombings which largely explain why he has reopened his lead over Mr Netanyahu.
Often perceived as soft on security by sections of the Israeli public, Mr Peres has been acting tough maintaining an open ended blockade of the autonomous areas under the control of the Palestinian President, Mr Yasser Arafat, and ordering the demolition or blowing up of homes of suicide bombers. Dozens of Hamas activists have also been arrested.
So far, Mr Peres's decision not to retaliate against attacks by Hizbullah militants in southern Lebanon which have left six Israeli soldiers dead in recent weeks, does not seem to have dented his popularity in the polls. But that could change if attacks continue and a major Israeli reprisal raid is not forth coming.
While members of Mr Peres's ruling Labour Party say they have been encouraged by his ability to rebound in the poles so soon after the bombings, they know just how fragile Israeli public opinion is at the moment and how quickly that lead can evaporate again.
And Mr Peres knows only too well the effect a suicide bombing would have in the final weeks before the election.
Peter Hirschberg is a senior writer at the Jerusalem Report.
The Lebanese Prime Minister Mr Rafik al-Hariri, yesterday warned Israel not to strike against Lebanon in retaliation for Hizbullah attacks, saying it would jeopardise the peace process.