Pentagon `predicted 10,000 deaths' in air strikes

As the United States watches to see if the United Nations weapons inspectors are given full co-operation when they resume work…

As the United States watches to see if the United Nations weapons inspectors are given full co-operation when they resume work in Iraq today, there are reports that President Clinton suspended air strikes against the recommendations of some of his chief advisers.

The Pentagon had estimated the attack would have killed 10,000 Iraqis, according to a Washington Post report.

With the crisis now winding down, Mr Clinton is getting ready to depart for his Asian trip which had to be curtailed. Vice-President Mr Al Gore replaced the President at the APEC summit in Malaysia but Mr Clinton will now travel to Japan, Korea and Guam as originally planned.

Mr Clinton first ordered the strikes to begin on Saturday at 9 a.m. Washington time, which would have been early evening in Iraq. With about an hour to go, he ordered a "pause" of 24 hours while the Iraqi letters agreeing to resumption of inspections were examined.

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The strikes were called off about 19 hours later as President Clinton went to bed, at 3.30 a.m. on Sunday morning.

According to a report in the Washington Post, the President's decision to suspend, and then cancel, the air strikes was against the recommendations of the Defence Secretary, Mr William Cohen, the Secretary of State, Mrs Madeleine Albright, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen Hugh Shelton. They favoured going ahead with the attack - which the Pentagon estimated could have killed 10,000 Iraqis - but the National Security Adviser, Mr Sandy Berger, recommended suspending the strikes.

Mr Gore's advice was also sought but that could not be ascertained by the Washington Post.

Mrs Albright, who had to be contacted in Kuala Lumpur where she was attending the APEC summit, reportedly argued that the initial offer from the Iraqis was "too little, too late," and that President Saddam Hussein had allowed the situation to go "one minute past midnight", according to an administration official.

The National Security Council spokesman, Mr David Leavy, said that he would not discuss the internal deliberations but emphasised that "everybody debated the pros and cons of the decision, and everybody supported the President's decision."

Mr Clinton was flanked by Mr Cohen, Gen Shelton and Mr Berger when he announced his decision to cancel the strikes to the White House press corps on Sunday morning.

The likelihood of heavy Iraqi casualties is said to have been an important factor for Mr Clinton in deciding against the air strikes once Iraq indicated readiness to co-operate fully with UNSCOM. To launch a massive attack in these circumstances would have risked alienating foreign opinion and undermining the support Washington had sought in its confrontation with Iraq.

The reinforcement of US naval and air forces in the Gulf region has been halted but not reversed. Fighter aircraft which had reached staging points at US bases in Europe are being kept there. The aircraft carrier USS Enterprise will continue on its way to the Gulf, where it was to replace the USS Eisenhower before the crisis with Iraq erupted. Several thousand troops who were to be sent to the Gulf at the weekend are remaining at their home bases.

The Defence Secretary, Mr Cohen, yesterday echoed remarks by the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, in indicating that there would be no more advance warnings for Iraq in case of non-compliance. "I think everyone understands that this is the last go-around as far as Saddam is concerned. He has had every opportunity to comply . . . we will see if his deeds match his words."

The French Foreign Minister, Mr Hubert Vedrine, has expressed outrage at reports that US Senator John McCain had hinted that Paris had tipped off Iraq about impending American bombing.

"The accusation is shameful and completely idiotic. It is especially outrageous coming from a senator and I will ask American authorities for explanations," Mr Vedrine told a French radio station.

An aide to Mr McCain, a possible Republican presidential candidate, denied that the senator, who is now in Singapore, had accused Paris of revealing military secrets.