Party loyalty and what Ahern should do with Lawlor put FF camp in a spin

It is one thing to dump on former party luminary Liam Lawlor; it is quite another to criticise your own Government in the process…

It is one thing to dump on former party luminary Liam Lawlor; it is quite another to criticise your own Government in the process. And Fianna Fail supporters are finding the going tough as they attempt to reconcile political pragmatism with loyalty.

On the one hand, almost two-thirds of Fianna Fail supporters approved of the tough action taken against Mr Lawlor by the Flood tribunal and the courts. And more than four out of five agreed with the other parties that he should resign his Dail seat. But when it came to evaluating the Government's response to these events, the outcome went pear-shaped.

In a startling reversal of broad cross-party accord - and with a nod to old connections - a majority of Fianna Fail respondents supported the Government's handling of the Lawlor affair. By a margin of 47 to 40 per cent. Almost certainly a case of: they're all out of step but our Taoiseach.

In stark contrast, supporters of the minor party in Government, the Progressive Democrats, were deeply unhappy. Some 64 per cent of those questioned were not satisfied with the Government's response to the Lawlor affair, as against almost half that number who expressed approval.

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Their attitude was roughly in line with the views expressed by supporters of the Fine Gael and the Labour Party.

On the basis of those figures, Liz O'Donnell's decision to draft a new code of conduct for Oireachtas members will go down a storm with the Progressive Democrats as tribunal investigations continue at Dublin Castle.

And, in the scramble for the moral high ground when the Dail meets next week, Ruairi Quinn will be arguing for disciplinary action where Oireachtas members act in "an unacceptable and unethical manner".

With John Bruton bracing himself for a renewed assault on his leadership within Fine Gael, you can expect sparks to fly as he seeks to raise his profile in the Dail.

And Bertie Ahern will bear the brunt of criticism for not leading the public charge against Mr Lawlor. But the Taoiseach has been there before. And there is little likelihood he will ride out ahead of the posse.

A Government motion will remove Mr Lawlor from membership of a number of Oireachtas committees. And failing his full co-operation with the Flood tribunal he will be asked to resign his Dail seat. And that will be as far as it goes. The issue of resignation itself will be left up to Mr Lawlor.

The Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll has cruelly charted the extent of Mr Lawlor's fall in terms of public opinion. Ninety-seven per cent of Progressive Democrats supporters now believe he should resign his Dail seat, against an overall average of 85 per cent, and 83 per cent within Fianna Fail.

In much the same way, Progressive Democrats supporters are most satisfied with the way the Flood tribunal and the courts smacked him down. It can hardly make for convivial relations within the Coalition tent.

But there will be political life after Liam Lawlor. And the Government and Opposition parties will pay particular attention to the factors the electorate says will influence its votes in the coming general election.

Micheal Martin will be under particular pressure to get things right, because health, hospitals and medical services are of concern to 34 per cent of the electorate. Interest is particularly intense in Leinster, but all areas display potential volatility.

Prices, cost of living and inflation rate an interest level of 29 per cent with the electorate, and are followed by housing and homelessness at 21 per cent.

In Dublin those who said their votes would be influenced by housing issues peaked at 26 per cent. That figure drifted back to 22 per cent in Leinster and to 17 per cent in Munster and in Connacht-Ulster, clearly reflecting the uneven growth pressures exerted by the "Celtic tiger".

Taxation rated joint fifth with education, at 17 per cent, in the importance of issues identified by those surveyed. After that, tribunals/scandals and honesty in public life came in at 15 per cent.