RAMALLAH HAS grown a forest of white stone-faced high-rises over the past year. The small West Bank town has turned into a bustling but uneasy city. A city waiting for something, anything to happen.
Traffic in the city centre was gridlocked at a sandy junction under construction because a taxi driver decided to leave his car in the middle of the street while he popped into a shop. No policeman was in sight. Like the hooting cars, the peace process is stuck in a jam, and the cars’ Palestinian passengers, longing for an end to the 44-year-old Israeli occupation, are in limbo, confused and frustrated.
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas says he will seek recognition by UN members of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders if during the next two months Israel refuses to enter into serious negotiations leading to the creation of such a state. As an indication of its good intentions, he insists that Israel halt settlement construction in the West Bank and accept a French effort to launch talks.
Abbas's preference is for negotiations. Palestinian Authority spokesman Ghassan Khatib told The Irish Timesthat he is committed to the September UN appeal but is not certain how to go about it or whether it will be beneficial. He has appointed technical and legal committees to study the issue.
Khatib said Abbas has to decide whether to approach the Security Council or the General Assembly or both and in which order. “It’s already clear that if the Palestinians press for a resolution calling for full UN membership the US will veto it,” rendering any General Assembly recognitions pointless. If there is “no recognition and no admission there will be no [positive] political or practical impact”. There is concern “that at the end of the day, [we will not] achieve anything to meet high [Palestinian] expectations,” he said.
Palestinians do not believe the US and EU will relaunch negotiations because Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu is not prepared to be “co-operative”. Khatib observed, “We might have a difficult time with our public if nothing important happens during the period after September.” He did not think, however, Abbas would resign and dissolve the PA, a demand put forward by many Palestinians. “Giving up autonomy could mean more misery. Can the authority simply give its 150,000 employees one month’s notice? A more creative way out of the current impasse must be found. The status quo is unsustainable and cannot be allowed to continue.”
Uncertainty on the external plane is compounded by uncertainty on the domestic plane. During a meeting in Gaza City before I visited Ramallah, independent legislator Rawia Shawwa said she is not optimistic about a home-front issue Palestinians face: reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. She said the gap between the two sides has not been bridged.
Hamas thought reconciliation would bring improvements for besieged and blockaded Gazans, But this did not happen and Hamas “does not trust Fatah”. Therefore, reconciliation has been achieved only “on paper”. Abbas is carrying “too much on his shoulders”, she observed.
“He is alone . . . The worst thing is that he does not take the people into consideration.” She believes young Palestinians will have to renounce the failed policies of the old leadership and mount a “peaceful struggle” against the occupation.
Mahdi Abdel Hadi, head of an East Jerusalem think tank, agreed with her that Abbas will not reconcile with Hamas, mainly due to strong US and Israeli opposition. Abbas will reshuffle the government headed by Salam Fayyad, rejected for the premiership by Hamas as being too close to the US.
Abdel Hadi said: “There won’t be another intifada because Fatah and Hamas have created two police state environments” which can suppress “any civil uprisings”. Over cups of thick Turkish coffee at the small November Cafe behind the Plaza Mall, business consultant Sam Bahour remarked, “People here have a bubble mentality and the bubble is bursting” due to the political impasse. He argued that the Palestinian economy is unsustainable” if the situation continues.
“People are very tense and bleak. [They] have a very short fuse. From a business perspective, there is shrinkage. Businessmen are more conservative,” less eager to initiate projects. They are investing in land and buildings rather than in the development projects needed to grow the economy.” The West Bank business community has no connection with its counterpart in Gaza, 40 per cent of the market.
There is no strategic growth or state-building. “Growth depends on a lot more than [high-rise] buil- dings in Ramallah,” he said.