PAKISTAN HAS failed to develop an effective counter-insurgency strategy, undermining efforts to tackle militants who roam the Afghan border, according to a new study by security analysts.
A report by the Rand Corporation, a non-profit research group frequently used by the Pentagon, concludes that Pakistan’s army and frontier corps have failed to hold territory regained from insurgents.
Pakistan is already under intense pressure to do more on its side of the border as Nato forces face growing losses in Afghanistan. However, western diplomats in Islamabad privately admit that Islamabad is doing as much as it can in the face of strong anti-American feeling and a battered economy.
But yesterday’s report recommends withholding some US military aid until Islamabad ends ties with jihadi groups and expands development, policing and governance efforts in the tribal areas.
Failure to do so brings the risk of more attacks such as the failed Times Square bombing, say the report’s authors.
“While Pakistan has had some success halting militant groups since 2001, these groups continue to present a significant threat to not only Pakistan, but to the United States and a host of other countries as well,” said Seth Jones.
“A number of militant networks including al-Qaeda, Lashkar-e- Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad remain entrenched in Pakistan and pose a grave threat to the state and the region.” Analysts have long questioned Islamabad’s commitment to clearing the country’s tribal areas of militants.
The long, porous border and inhospitable terrain make it a perfect sanctuary for al-Qaeda-linked groups battling Nato forces in Afghanistan.
Many of the jihadi groups were fostered by Pakistan’s intelligence network. Some have their roots in the mujahideen who fought the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan during the 1980s. Others, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, were used in Kashmir against India.
Yesterday’s report repeats allegations that Pakistan’s intelligence apparatus retains links to the groups.
But it also points out that the government has successfully cleared some tribal areas of militants – in Swat, Bajaur and South Waziristan. The question now is whether it can hold its gains, conclude the authors.
They argue that Pakistan must address deficiencies in local police forces, provide aid and assistance to displaced civilians, expand development efforts, and create new legal structures if the militants are to be kept out.
Maj Gen Tariq Khan, inspector general of the Frontier Scouts, which is responsible for law and order in the tribal areas, said he had lost 600 men since the operations had begun two years ago.
He said Pakistan had been more successful than coalition forces in Afghanistan at retaking territory from militants.
“We’ve done pretty well in the past two years. We’re very proud of what we’ve achieved.” His men could be about to find out whether those gains are permanent.
Nato is building up its forces in Afghanistan ahead of a widely anticipated push on Kandahar, the Taliban’s spiritual homeland, later this year.
That could prompt a fresh exodus of fighters to their old hideouts in Pakistan.
Three soldiers were killed yesterday when militants ambushed a military patrol in the northwestern tribal areas, providing another reminder of the price Pakistan is paying.