Pace of peace process gathers momentum as Blair and Adams set up their stalls for market day

THE pace of events in Northern Ireland, and in that wider world covered by the St Brigid's cloak called the peace process, is…

THE pace of events in Northern Ireland, and in that wider world covered by the St Brigid's cloak called the peace process, is quickening and it is full of danger and opportunity.

Goodbye tired phrases such as "parliamentary arithmetic" and "the Prime Minister's hands are tied". We now have the long-awaited Labour government complete with secure majority and apparently imbued with reforming zeal.

The key intervention by the new government on Northern Ireland was not long in coming. Some would argue that Tony Blair should have taken more time; that his speech was rushed and he ought to have waited to get a better perspective and maybe hire more new speech-writers.

But President Clinton is coming to London next week and it would be unfortunate, to put it mildly, if the Blairites were still temporising on their biggest international embarrassment, Northern Ireland. Besides, the Northern Secretary of State Mo Mowlam, has had ample time to study the Northern problem from every conceivable angle. There was no time like the present.

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The Blair speech may mark a watershed in Labour thinking on Irish issues. Having shifted policy from unity-by-consent to one of neutrality, Blair has now come down firmly on the side of the British link.

His speech is replete with pro-Union sentiment and phraseology. "I value the union"; "my agenda is not a united Ireland" and most shocking of all to republican sensibilities: "None of us in this hall today, even the youngest, is likely to see Northern Ireland as anything but a part of the United Kingdom

He is also reopening contact with Sinn Fein at a time when the IRA is still at least nominally at war. Unionists by and large seem prepared to tolerate this, although there have been negative comments from the likes of Peter Robinson and Sammy Wilson of the Democratic Unionist Party.

In terms of realpolitik, Mr Blair has won considerable room to manoeuvre. Unionist anxieties about Labour's assumption of power have been allayed somewhat. A breathing space has been created which will be taken up at noon today when Quentin Thomas of the Northern Ireland Office and Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness meet at Stormont Castle.

The British side is playing down the encounter, refusing even to confirm officially that it is taking place. The Sinn Fein people, meanwhile, will come in full of suspicion and ready to make a rapid judgment on the key issue exercising their minds: "Are the British serious or are they just stringing us along like they did before for 17 months?"

"Camouflage" and "cloud-cover" are among the phrases observers are using to describe the pro-Union sentiment in the Blair speech. But it is clear from Mr Adams's response and the comments of republicans that they were taken aback by Mr Blair's enthusiasm for holding on to the North.

In many ways, Mr Adams is giving a "back to basics" response, asserting, as Charles Haughey used to in the past, that Northern Ireland is a failed political entity and that a unitary, independent Irish state is needed.

At the same time, there is no sign of a slackening in Sinn Fein's vigour and its appetite for substantive negotiations. The multi-party talks resume at Stormont on June 3rd, but nobody expects a ceasefire by that date. Most observers believe the republican movement will wait at least until after the election in the Republic. They will be deeply disappointed if Mr Bruton is returned as Taoiseach. Meanwhile, the "silent truce" seems set to continue.

Mr Blair and Mr Adams have set out their respective stalls and, while each may be turning up his nose at the other's wares, it's market day all the same.