Opposition may lose enthusiasm for election

Election fever at Leinster House is likely to be throttled back when the Dail meets next Tuesday

Election fever at Leinster House is likely to be throttled back when the Dail meets next Tuesday. And, mirabile dictu, Charlie McCreevy may reemerge as a man of judgment when his Fianna Fail colleagues measure the political success of his December Budget.

There was a whiff of the Lazarus syndrome about it all. Before Christmas the Coalition Government was down and hurting while John Bruton and Ruairi Quinn embarked on a delicate pre-election courtship dance. And then the Minister for Finance raided the State's overflowing coffers and played Santa Claus to the voters. The exercise went down a storm. Like a Christmas panto without the wicked witch. And now it's payback time. Most of the smiling faces will be on the Government benches next week, as ministers and deputies enjoy a surge of 15 full points in their satisfaction rating. The nightmare of the O'Flaherty months and of fading popularity has been placed behind them. Even the shenanigans of Liam Lawlor failed to derail their political resuscitation. Life is looking up.

For Fine Gael and for John Bruton, the nightmare is just beginning. Having fended off an Austin Deasy-inspired challenge to his leadership last November, Mr Bruton and his party must now confront the fallout. And, like a snake swallowing its tail, the leader may still be consumed in the process.

The disastrous popularity levels plumbed by Mr Bruton in this poll were only reached once before, shortly before his elevation to the position of Taoiseach in the last coalition government and following a "heave" against his leadership in Fine Gael. Will history repeat itself, or will Fine Gael embark on a new agenda?

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Those unhappy with Mr Bruton's leadership may quote the party's declining profile in the Dublin conurbation as justification for their continuing dissent. But no leader can guard against a popular budget. And confidence in him within the organisation as a whole remains strong. Mr Bruton still holds a 72 per cent satisfaction rating with party supporters.

Fine Gael's problems stretch far beyond their leader but, in the nature of things, the buck invariably stops on the top desk.

Bad news is not confined to Fine Gael in this poll. The Labour Party saw its support decline by two points, to 15 per cent overall. And while it secured a slight lead over Fine Gael in Dublin, the party leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, has still to make a breakthrough in capturing his supporters' imagination. While the two main opposition parties have lost support, the Green Party, Sinn Fein and the Independents continued to make slow but steady progress. All added a valuable point to their tally. And, with government-formation a topic of increasing interest, support for the Green Party is now at 5 per cent, with Sinn Fein at 6 per cent and the Independents at 9 per cent.

The emerging arithmetic is likely to send party planners scurrying back to the drawing board. For, with Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney insisting there will not be an election until next year, there is plenty of time to revise strategies. And the existing coalition arrangement is in pole position.

The turnabout in the Government's fortunes was directly linked to the Budget. Even before the European Commission became involved in lecturing Charlie McCreevy about fiscal rectitude, some 71 per cent of those questioned in the poll had given his December exercise in economics a definitive thumbs up. The percentage who believed the Budget was "good for the country" rose to 85 per cent within Fianna Fail and exceeded 60 per cent with the supporters of all political parties.

Party poopers, who believed the Budget was bad for the country, came to a lowly 15 per cent and were most strongly represented amongst Labour Party supporters. Some 35 per cent of that sample thought it a Budget for the rich, or did not do enough for the poor. A further 30 per cent said the Budget was inflationary and increased the cost of living. While respondents were reluctant to predict they would be better off due to Mr McCreevy's magic, more than half of those questioned believed they would be no worse off in the coming year. And a further 35 per cent felt their standards of living would rise. When you can please - or certainly not antagonise - a full 86 per cent of the electorate, you are certainly ahead in the political game. And Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney can think kind thoughts of the Finance Minister.

The Tanaiste and the Minister for Finance have always been close. Last Wednesday, she provided a spirited defence of Mr McCreevy when the European Commission dared to criticise him for producing an inflationary Budget. Not that Mr McCreevy needed much defending. He gave as good as he got. Where Government supporters are concerned, however, these opinion poll figures will provide convincing justification for the correctness of his actions.

Mr McCreevy was kept on a fairly tight leash by the Taoiseach during the production of the Budget, but it still carried his distinctive fingerprints. In the circumstances, Mr Ahern should be cheered by his own 11 point rise in popularity.

Fianna Fail failed to make the same kind of spectacular gains. But then, the circumstances were different. The Flood tribunal was locked in dispute with Liam Lawlor. And Charlie Haughey was trundling to Dublin Castle to give private evidence to the Moriarty tribunal. The miracle was that the party didn't suffer.

For the Government it was a good start to a new year. And with Liam Lawlor finally cut adrift from Fianna Fail, the party was in a position to make further progress. Although Mr Ahern might not choose to have an election for another year, a sudden trip to the country could be faced with equanimity.