REPUBLICAN presidential hopefuls include establishment conservatives – former governors who “look presidential” – and populists who have risen to prominence with the Tea Party. All rail against taxes and deficit spending. The populists add gun rights and rage against gay marriage and abortion to the mix.
Establishment Republicans are personified by Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, considered the first and second most likely candidates for the nomination. Both are stained by association with President Obama: Mr Romney for enacting healthcare reform in Massachusetts; Mr Huntsman for having served as Mr Obama’s ambassador to China.
The former governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty is a “tweener”, combining the appearance of an establishment “suit” with the beliefs of an Evangelical Christian. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani scores high in opinion polls, but has not declared his intentions.
Many Republicans harbour fantasies that a “white knight” – such as former Florida governor Jeb Bush, or the current governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie – will save the party from the choice between blandness and craziness.
Sarah Palin leads those candidates with Tea Party support. She has more star power than any other Republican hopeful, but is a polarising figure who nearly two-thirds of respondents do not want to see in the White House.
Representative Michele Bachmann, the founder of the Tea Party caucus in the House, is similar to Palin in beliefs, but comes across as a more serious candidate. She calls healthcare reform “the crown jewel of socialism” and says that if it is not repealed “we will never get our country back”.
The former House speaker Newt Gingrich and former senator Rick Santorum have proved their own worst enemies. Mr Gingrich’s popularity plummeted after he called Republican representative Paul Ryan’s proposal to gut the popular Medicare programme “right-wing social engineering”. Mr Santorum said Senator John McCain, who was tortured as a prisoner in Vietnam, did not understand torture. Herman Cain, an African-American from Georgia, and the biggest surprise in the Republican campaign, performed well in the first Republican debate.
