If East Timor rejects independence and opts instead for autonomy within Indonesia, it would have a special status similar to that of Hong Kong in China, and the jailed independence leader, Xanana Gusmao, could become chief executive in charge of administration, including policing. This is the prospect to be put by Indonesia to the East Timor population to persuade a majority to vote for autonomy rather than separation in a referendum on August 8th.
Mr Dino Djalal, spokesman for the Indonesian task force implementing the referendum, said that Xanana Gusmao, under house arrest in Jakarta, would be released from his 20-year sentence regardless of the outcome.
Under autonomy, he told The Irish Times, there would be local elections for a parliament and a special East Timor police force. The Indonesian army would be withdrawn to barracks. "Indonesian military forces will be sent only in accordance with the requirements to maintain external defence," Mr Dino said. "I'll give you one example. In [the East Timor town of] Bakau there is an air-force base. We'll probably have an air-force squadron there. Now if any part of eastern Indonesia is attacked then these guys would go and do their job of defending the country.
"If there's a riot in Bakau itself they don't go out. They stay where they are. Because that will be the responsibility of the East Timorese police force, which will be controlled and ordered by the chief executive of East Timor, and that could be anybody, it could be Abilio Soares or Xanana Gusmao. Mr Soares is the present governor of the former Portuguese colony and a militant opponent of independence, and Mr Gusmao is president of the Resistance Council of East Timor (CNRT), an umbrella organisation for pro-independence groups. Mr Dino, who said autonomy was a "peaceful political compromise", was emphatic that exiled Nobel peace prize-winner, Dr Jose Ramos Horta, would not be allowed to campaign in the territory for independence. "You would have thousands of people in the streets who are pro-independence and thousands who are pro-integration," he said, "and you have the potential for a violent clash." Governor Soares has organised large pro-integration rallies in recent months and endorsed a campaign of intimidation by pro-integration militias. On April 17th at a meeting with the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, in the capital Dili, he vowed to fight on for integration if the people chose independence, even if it meant splitting East Timor.
Asked about this, Mr Dino said: "This is a very sensitive question and we have heard about this." If there was an independence vote, "we will propose to the NPR (Indonesian parliament) that we will proceed with the partition of East Timor from Indonesia and they will decide upon it".
The parliament will be dominated by the PDI-P party of Ms Megawati Sukharnoputri, who has disapproved of the referendum.
In Jakarta, Mr Gusmao was taken on Wednesday to the Justice Ministry for the first meeting of the Commission for Peace and Stability to draw up a code of conduct for the referendum campaign. The commission comprises representatives of both pro- and anti-independence groups, the Catholic Church, the local administration, the security forces, students and NGOs.
Asked if Mr Gusmao would be able to address the people of East Timor before the vote on radio or television Mr Dino replied: "That is my understanding."
Under Beijing's one country-two systems policy, Hong Kong exists as a separate political and economic entity from communist China.