Betting on the first round of the championship has never been a sound investment for gamblers. Death and taxes may be holding their certainty but when it comes to the championship, as Longford reminded us all yesterday, anything can happen.
Who would have bet on this? Longford facing off against their neighbours and intense rivals Westmeath, hoping the home crowd would increase their odds of success, and instead the game heralding the start of the football championship was turning into a false start.
Westmeath bolting from the blocks and soon looking over their shoulders, nine points clear at one stage and ending the first half with the daylight of eight - at which juncture who could bet against them winning?
Then within five minutes of the restart Brian Kavanagh claims two goals and suddenly all bets are off again. It's like a whole new game, only this time no one would readily bet against Longford. In the end they win comfortably, 2-13 to 1-13.
Quite a game for the first championship Sunday. Wonder what Tommy Lyons thought of it.
"That shows you how fickle football is," said Kavanagh afterwards, all boyish innocence despite the assassin's eye. "A goal here, a goal there. It would have been very disappointing if we didn't improve from the first half.
"But Luke Dempsey is a great man to win back confidence in a team. And I never thought twice about going for those goals."
This must have been a strange afternoon for Dempsey, who for years nurtured Westmeath from underage talents to senior contenders and was then discarded before their famous Leinster title win of 2004. Three years with Longford, he's now orchestrated their first win in the Leinster championship since they beat Louth back in 2001.
As half-time speeches go, what Dempsey produced yesterday will go down as something special. After conceding four early points Longford at least drew level, before clocking out again and allowing Westmeath pull 1-10 to 0-4 clear.
Kavanagh got a point back before the break but obviously the game was on life-support.
"I noticed the players had the heads down," explained Dempsey. "I just asked them the question did anyone play up to the standard they were used to. And there was a one-hundred percent response that they didn't.
"I told them I was taking no one off, and giving them all the chance to show they were up to the higher standard . . .
"It was only after they went out again that Liam Keenan decided his shoulder injury was getting worse, and so that was an enforced change.
"But maybe the gods were willing that, because when David Barden went in we reverted back to our normal full-forward line of himself and Brian Kavanagh inside. But I'm delighted for these Longford players. They've given fantastic commitment."
Kavanagh's goals sent a wave of euphoria through Pearse Park, and the Longford supporters among the crowd of 8,250 sensed their day.
David Hannify fired them in front for the first time on 58 minutes and there was no looking back. They'll meet Laois in the Leinster quarter-final on June 2nd, and while that game is down for Tullamore, refurbishing work there means it's likely to become a home fixture for Longford.
Who would bet against a repeat performance? Of course there will be some questions about which is the real Longford.
In the first half it was as if their goalkeeper and captain, Damien Sheridan, was suffering from colour-blindness, kicking the ball straight to the opposition.
In front of him his defenders looked like moths in a blizzard.
Yet in the second half they had Westmeath - including a last-ditch goal effort by Denis Glennon - entirely under wraps.
Naturally it took a brave man to bet on a draw in the other main championship match of the day, the meeting of Cavan and Down at Breffni Park - but that's what transpired, Down's 3-8 to Cavan's 2-11. They meet again next Sunday in Newry.
It was a fair result in a typically dour Ulster championship tie, punctuated by poor finishing from both sides and a lack of any real quality football.
At least it was exciting. Down held the advantage for most of the game, working up a three-point lead early in the second half, 3-3 to 1-6, that third goal coming courtesy of Ronan Sexton. Still it remained tense and close, Cavan coming back to within two points before Down restored a three-point lead going into the final minute.
Cue the classic late goal for Cavan, shot low by Jonathan Crowe past Mickey McVeigh and thus levelling the teams. With this momentum Cavan briefly pulled a point clear, only for Down to secure the deserved equaliser at closing time.
"While we were three up, we had a couple of chances go to go four and five points up" said Down manager Ross Carr. "So I suppose when you get a draw with the last kick of the game, you have to be happy."
His Cavan counterpart Dermot McCabe expressed his own relief. "In years gone by we conceded two early goals and were five or ten points down at half-time and lost by a big margin. So it is tremendous for us to come back from that and still be in the game. We were down and out," said the Cavan manager.
Both sides live to fight another day. Longford ride on. Westmeath await the qualifiers in July. They'll soon have plenty of company. The championship is away and running. Roll on next Sunday.
Tyrone star Brian McGuigan has suffered a fresh injury setback, just when he was on the verge of making a return to the county colours following more than a year out with serious injury.
McGuigan picked up an eye injury while playing for his club Ardboe yesterday and is nowa serious doubt for next Sunday's Ulster Championship opener against Fermanagh.