As the race narrows, the candidates’ response to the crisis on Wall Street could be crucial in swing states, writes Denis Staunton in Washington
JOHN McCAIN and Barack Obama traded insults over the economy yesterday as the race for the White House narrows into a close battle over a handful of key states.
As Wall Street struggled to digest the collapse of one of the biggest investment banks in the US and a fight for survival by one of the world’s biggest insurers, Mr Obama sought to link Mr McCain with the policies that created the financial turmoil. “I certainly don’t fault Senator McCain for all of the problems we’re facing, but I do fault the economic philosophy he subscribes to,” the Democrat told a rally in Colorado.
“It’s the philosophy that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down. It’s the philosophy that says even common-sense regulations are unnecessary and unwise. It’s a philosophy that lets Washington lobbyists shred consumer protections and distort our economy so it works for the special interests instead of working people.”
Mr McCain rowed back from his declaration on Monday that the fundamentals of the US economy were strong, telling supporters in Florida that “it is a bad economy” and blaming the current crisis on “unbridled greed”.
He promised to overhaul the regulatory system that governs investment banks but claimed Mr Obama would make matters worse by increasing taxes.
The crisis on Wall Street has moved the economy to the centre of the presidential campaign as polls show Mr McCain holding on to a slight national lead over Mr Obama. National poll numbers are less important, however, than how the candidates are faring in battleground states, where new polls suggest the race is too close to call.
Mr McCain’s campaign is focusing most of its efforts on just seven states, hoping to retain Florida, Ohio and Virginia – which US president George W Bush won in 2004 – and attempting to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, all of which John Kerry won last time.
Until a few weeks ago, Mr Obama was competing seriously in 22 states, investing heavily in states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Montana, which Democrats have long written off as Republican strongholds.
The Republican surge following Sarah Palin’s selection as running mate and a more level financial playing field than Democrats expected have caused Mr Obama to downsize his battle plan.
The Democrat is working hard to hold all the states Mr Kerry won in 2004 while seeking to open up as many alternative routes as possible to make up the extra electoral college votes to reach the 270 needed to win the election.
Florida and Ohio are the biggest prizes in the battleground but Mr McCain has established a solid lead in Florida, while Ohio – which Hillary Clinton won easily in the Democratic primary – is a toss-up.
Mr Obama is confident of winning Iowa and New Mexico, which Mr Bush won by tiny margins last time. He is running about even with Mr McCain in Virginia and Colorado.
Virginia has elected two Democratic governors in succession as the liberal northern suburbs near Washington DC have grown in recent years. Mr Obama can also expect to benefit from a big increase in African-American votes in the state.
Colorado has also seen demographic changes that could benefit the Democrat but the state has a large population of evangelical Christians, many of whom are excited by Ms Palin’s candidacy.
A new poll this week put Mr McCain just three points behind Mr Obama in New Jersey but few Republican strategists hold out much hope of winning the state in November. Similarly, Mr Obama appears to be competitive in Missouri but Democratic insiders acknowledge that they are unlikely to prevail there.
Despite the national polls, the electoral college map gives Mr Obama an advantage, not least because he has more apparent routes to victory than Mr McCain.
It appears almost impossible for the Republican to win in November if he loses either Florida or Ohio (no Republican has reached the White House in the past century without winning Ohio).
Mr Obama can afford to lose both states as long as he picks up a combination of formerly Republican states that includes Colorado or Virginia. The biggest threat to Mr Obama is a McCain victory in Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, where polls show the race tightening in recent weeks.
All three states have a large population of white working-class voters – a group Mr Obama has struggled to reach. The debate over the economy could be crucial in determining the fate of these swing states, along with Ohio, as such voters evaluate the rival candidates’ claims and decide who will best represent their interests.
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