North parties face big decisions

ANALYSIS: An IRA response to the Anglo-Irish plan is expected quickly, writes Gerry Moriarty , Northern Editor.

ANALYSIS: An IRA response to the Anglo-Irish plan is expected quickly, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor.

Sinn Féin leaders Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness were last night still trying to chisel away at the structure of the plan to bring an element of political stability to Northern Ireland that the Taoiseach and British Prime Minister will unveil today in Hillsborough.

There were even some initial rumours flying around Belfast yesterday that such was the deadlock between Sinn Féin and the governments that Mr Ahern and Mr Tony Blair could be forced to defer publication of their document.

The two republican leaders were seeking last-minute alterations to the British and Irish governments' package of proposals for restoring the Stormont Executive and Assembly, according to Sinn Féin sources.

READ MORE

As the Taoiseach said on Tuesday, they wanted further movement around a "short list" of matters covering areas such as sanctions, policing, demilitarisation, and the timing for devolving criminal justice and policing to Northern Ireland.

But as these are key elements of the package, the governments were unsurprisingly reluctant to engage in any major surgery on the document.

"Sinn Féin will negotiate until the cows come home," said an Irish source. His line, though, was that the cows were now at the back gate.

The two governments, while willing to offer "clarification and reassurance", were equally determined in their refusal to radically amend their 20-page blueprint, according to British and Irish sources. "Parties have to embrace the notion that this is the endgame," said one official.

So, short of an eleventh-hour retreat by Mr Blair and Mr Ahern, today truly will be make-your-mind-up-time for the parties, chiefly for Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionists, and, of course, also for the IRA.

There will be few surprises in the document, officials said. Contingent on the IRA stating that it is going out of business and, just to reinforce the point, destroying arms, a programme of toppling the British army towers along the Border will begin, followed by a scaling down of troop numbers from around 14,000 to 5,000 over a three-year period.

There will be further policing reform; with cross-party agreement, policing and criminal justice will be devolved to the Executive; special legislation will be enacted to ensure IRA fugitives can avoid prison; a new system for appointing judges will be proposed; Westminster legislation allowing the unilateral suspension of the Stormont institutions will be removed; there will be commitments on the Irish language, equality and human rights; there will reference to those exiled by the paramilitaries; there will be support for victims, and much more besides.

As a foretaste for what may appear a pretty green paper, the Northern Ireland Office yesterday confirmed that it is conducting studies to try to end the use of plastic bullets by the end of the year - assuming practical alternatives to the plastic baton rounds can be found.

The governments say that the International Monitoring Body to deal with sanctions against parties - and also against the IRA - that are in breach of the Belfast Agreement will be in the document, regardless of republican opposition.

The DUP and anti-Belfast Agreement unionists will complain of sell-out. Ulster Unionist leader Mr David Trimble must take flak for a while. Accusations of "treachery" will fill the air.

But after publication this afternoon the next move will be for the IRA. If it can live with the blueprint, a statement declaring that it is ending all paramilitary activity will be required fairly promptly. After that major decommissioning is needed.

If the IRA delivers "big time" - i.e. without ifs, buts or wherefores - then the political balance should shift back towards Mr Trimble and Yes unionists.

An IRA response to the plan is expected quickly, probably by the weekend, possibly tomorrow.

Next move then will be for Mr Trimble to sideline his internal opponents and persuade the UUP's ruling Ulster Unionist Council to endorse the proposals, thus freeing up Northern Ireland for an election campaign leading to the May 29th Assembly poll.

The mood was more up than down last night, despite the Sinn Féin haggling, but there was still considerable apprehension around whether the governments have called it right this time. "People are jittery, people are nervous," said a London official yesterday.

But the talking would end late last night, the publication would happen today, he added. After that, big decisions.