No deal yet, but breakthrough looks possible

Excitement about a possible deal to break the decommissioning deadlock grew last night, as well-placed sources suggested the …

Excitement about a possible deal to break the decommissioning deadlock grew last night, as well-placed sources suggested the Mitchell review was unlikely to continue into November.

And the divided forces of Ulster Unionism were anticipating a final showdown, amid growing suspicion that Mr David Trimble and Mr Gerry Adams might be about to further stretch their constituencies in a dramatic effort to salvage the Belfast Agreement.

Sources close to the Ulster Unionist leader continued to insist there was, as yet, no deal on the table. But this was questioned by other senior party figures who, citing the determined secrecy surrounding the negotiations and the acknowledgement that a serious engagement between Sinn Fein and the UUP is taking place, predicted that Senator George Mitchell could present the parties with a final definitive plan tomorrow.

Senator Mitchell, who returned from the US to Castle Buildings, Stormont yesterday afternoon, has told the British and Irish governments that he plans to conclude his review by this weekend, according to informed sources.

READ MORE

The pro-agreement parties were observing a tight media blackout yesterday but it is understood that Senator Mitchell has not yet presented a blueprint offering a possible way out of the current logjam.

He said in Belfast on Saturday that he would bring his own set of suggestions on how to end the impasse. However, it seems now that he may hold off on presenting formal proposals to the parties until the weekend.

"George is a professional dealmaker. He will decide himself when is the right time to make a move. He will work out the best way to play it," said a senior talks source last night.

Dublin sources predicted that it would be tomorrow at the earliest before Senator Mitchell would take the initiative. In the meantime, he will continue his meetings with the parties, and in the absence of them "jumping together" would table his own proposals.

"If he does take the initiative, he would have to be pretty sure that it would produce something, and that the parties would buy it," said a Dublin insider.

Sources close to Mr Trimble told The Irish Times that a one-off "voluntary" act of decommissioning by the IRA would not be enough to satisfy the UUP's terms for Sinn Fein's entry into government. But in an atmosphere of considerable disinformation, there were also indications that provided a deal on sequencing could be concluded, Mr Trimble might be prepared to pre-empt his opponents by calling a meeting of the ruling Ulster Unionist Council to endorse his position.

Senator Mitchell held individual meetings with the pro-agreement parties throughout yesterday. He concluded business around 8 p.m. last night with a meeting involving small Sinn Fein and UUP teams led by Mr Adams and Mr Trimble.

Observers said these meetings were chiefly designed to help him determine if the two main protagonists were edging closer to finding a resolution to the "no guns, no government" stalemate.

Sinn Fein vice-chairman Mr Pat Doherty said the talks were at an "intense" stage. He said that Sinn Fein would do everything it could to bring the review to a successful conclusion.

Talks sources said today's negotiations were likely to be "fairly freewheeling". Senator Mitchell, it is expected, will continue his efforts to discover from Sinn Fein and the UUP what room they have to manoeuvre on IRA decommissioning and the formation of an executive.

He may also try to establish whether the IRA would appoint a member to deal directly with Gen John de Chastelain's decommissioning body, or whether the IRA might issue a statement which could persuade the UUP of its intentions to engage in some form of decommissioning. Hitherto, Sinn Fein has resisted all attempts to compel it in any way to represent the IRA.

While Senator Mitchell hopes to be out of Northern Ireland by the weekend, sources said he would show some minor degree of flexibility if a deal was in the offing, possibly extending the talks into next week.

The Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, also maintained the pressure on the parties to reach agreement. He said in London yesterday that the Belfast Agreement was the "only alternative to the yah-boo politics of the past".

AN overwhelming percentage of people in the North want the Mitchell review to succeed but less than half of them are optimistic as to its outcome, according to a poll in yesterday's Belfast Telegraph.

Some 80 per cent of Protestants and 93 per cent of Catholics questioned in the poll hope for a successful outcome to the review. But only slightly more than a third of Protestants and slightly less than two-thirds of Catholics believe the review will achieve a break through.