Further pressure on the IRA to carry out an act of decommissioning may come within days if, as is expected, the "Real IRA" calls an end to its terrorist campaign. The "Real IRA", the group responsible for the worst single atrocity of the Troubles in the Omagh bombing, has been holding a series of meetings in the wake of the Islamic attacks in the United States.
Members of the "Real IRA's" political wing, the 32-County Sovereignty Committee, met in Dundalk yesterday to discuss its stance on the calling of a military cessation in the aftermath of the attacks on the US. The group is already included in the US list of proscribed organisations and fund-raising for either the political or military wings is banned there.
One of the practical difficulties the IRA would encounter if it chose to hand over weapons was that it would face angry opposition from dissidents such as the "Real IRA". There is very considerable tension between the two groups in south Armagh. Local sources report that fist-fighting has been breaking out regularly in local bars at weekends. The fighting has even created bitter divisions within some republican families.
There were concerns locally among IRA figures that if there was decommissioning this could then be used by their opponents in the "Real IRA" as a further excuse to attack it. Dissident purists have, until now, believed that it would be an offence against the spirit of Irish republicanism to "surrender" weapons while there is still British occupation of the North.
So if the "Real IRA" chooses to call a ceasefire, prompted by the current anti-terrorist climate, this will remove one of the fears that the IRA might have about decommissioning.
Republican sources in the North and Garda sources had reported no movement within the IRA towards decommissioning - despite its August 8th statement that it was engaging with Gen de Chastelain's Independent International Commission on Decommissioning.
Under the terms of the Easter 1998 Belfast Agreement, decommissioning of all terrorist weapons was to have been completed by June this year. Only days after making its announcement about re-engagement with Gen de Chasterlain, the IRA withdrew its offer, citing a negative response from the Ulster Unionist leadership.
However, the attitude of the IRA leadership changed again in the aftermath of the arrests of the three republicans in Colombia in mid-August.
Although the actual mechanism to be used to bring about IRA decommissioning is not widely known, it is believed its primary choice is to destroy its weapons itself. The notion of pouring concrete into arms bunkers is one that has been suggested. It is believed the IRA would then prefer that this was verified by the two inspectors it has previously chosen to inspect three of its dumps.
However, senior security sources point out that pouring concrete into bunkers is something even the IRA would find difficult to keep secret.
It is now thought possible that the IRA will carry out an act of decommissioning in the coming weeks. It knows that if it fails to do so it may be put back on the list international terrorist organisations proscribed in the United States. If that occurs, it may follow that Sinn FΘin may be banned from raising funds or organising in the US.
Sinn FΘin supporters in the United States have donated millions of dollars to the organisation since it was permitted to openly raise money there in the aftermath of the first ceasefire.
One of the first acts of Sinn FΘin at the time of the August 1994 ceasefire was to seek visas for some of its leading members, mostly notably Mr Joe Cahill, the veteran republican and Sinn FΘin national treasurer.
Exclusion from the United States could seriously deter the progress Sinn FΘin has been making. The party has, in the past few years, opened more than 30 constituency offices in the Republic and at least that number in the North. Its political machine is regarded as the richest of any political party on the island and is believed to have hundreds of full-time employees.
If, at this stage in the peace process in Northern Ireland, the IRA chooses to hold on to its weapons, it could be seen, particularly in the United States, to be bringing the "peace process" to an end.
This would also raise questions about the IRA's future intentions. Since first calling its "cessation" between August 1994 and February 1996, when it started its campaign again with the bombing of Canary Wharf in London, and the resumption of its cessation in August 1997, the organisation has been on effective ceasefire for five years and seven months.
With any return to "war" it would find itself engaging in attacks on the British army and possibly the new Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI).
No Garda or republican source believes that even the most hawkish figures in the IRA would consider launching such a campaign at a time when Britain is standing side-by-side with the United States in its declared war against "international terrorism".