Yukio Hatoyama has a vision of an Asian equivalent of the EU, writes DAVID McNEILLin Tokyo
JUST FIVE weeks in office, Japan’s prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, is already known for an endearing mix of realpolitik and hippy-speak in his public pronouncements.
The quality has been noted by the press, who cite his frequent use of the touchy-feely word yuai, meaning friendship, love or fraternity – when discussing foreign relations.
Mr Hatoyama used the word last month during his first meeting with Chinese leader Hu Jintao, when he floated the idea of an East Asian Community modelled on the European Union.
Just as the 1952 European Coal and Steel Community kick-started the 27-nation EU, Japan and China should use their long- standing dispute over gas fields in the East China Sea as the starting point for deeper regional integration, Mr Hatoyama proposed.
“Rather than a sea of conflict, we should turn [it] into a sea of fraternity,” he said. “ Yes,” agreed Mr Hu. “I’d like to make it a sea of peace, friendship, co-operation and fraternity.”
So far, this diplomatic flirting has yet to deepen into a long-term relationship. Both sides though will be looking for a stronger commitment this weekend when they meet in Thailand for a regional summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, plus Australia, India and New Zealand.
An EU-style grouping of nations in East Asia – now among the world’s most economically dynamic regions – has long been seen as something of a pipe dream, but Mr Hatoyama is throwing his weight behind it.
He pushed the issue high on the agenda of a meeting with Chinese premier Wen Jiabao and South Korean president Lee Myung Bak in Beijing on October 10th and is expected to do the same in Thailand.
Japan’s foreign minister, Katsuya Okada, and his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, meanwhile, have been gingerly trying to put flesh on the bones of Mr Hatoyama’s Big Idea, proposing closer co-operation on energy, finance and the environment.
If the relationship blossoms, the two old enemies could move closer politically, economically and even militarily, eventually pushing a single currency to rival the faltering dollar.
Together, Japan and China account for about a quarter of the world’s industrial output and, while America’s share is stagnating, China’s output is doubling nearly every 10 years.
By mid-century China, is forecast to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy and, with Japan and India, will account for well over half of global output, BusinessWeek magazine predicts.
Mr Hatoyama is seen by some as the idea broker because he has pledged to put more distance between Tokyo and its traditional ally Washington, and build friendships in Asia.
Experts say, however, the details of such a marriage are forbidding.
For a start, who would join the East Asian Community? China favours a 13-member body, including the developing regional economies, with itself and Japan playing the driving role of Germany and France in the EU.
Japan wants to include Australia, New Zealand and China’s sparring partner India in a 16-nation grouping. It hints too that Washington may also have to be involved in some capacity.
Japan’s inclusion of India as a potential counterbalance to Beijing’s influence is already being interpreted as a sign of an early power struggle over leadership of the new union.
India, China and Japan have for years been estranged politically and mired in historical and territorial disputes. Japan is reluctant to allow China a seat at the G8 table; China blocks an expanded UN role for Tokyo.
Vast national disparities in wealth, economic development, and even in political models block the way.
Can Hatoyama’s passion for the Asian union overcome these problems? Reconciliation, he told Mr Hu, requires a “diplomacy of fraternity”.
At this weekend's meeting, he'll be spreading the yuaiaround again in the hope that it might provide an aphrodisiac for what could be one of the 21st century's great partnerships.