New faces but the old line up in the "model county"

WEXFORD has done well out of the Rainbow Coalition

WEXFORD has done well out of the Rainbow Coalition. It could hardly have failed to, with two members of the Cabinet and a junior Minister, an advantage noted sourly in neighbouring Waterford.

Unless the 83,000 voters in the county undergo a massive political mood swing, and there is no reason to expect that, the constituency will not produce any change in the balance of the parties.

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are expected to win two seats each with the Minister for the Environment, Mr Howlin, picking up the remaining one for Labour. On past form, it is likely to be one of the most predictable constituencies in the State.

Within the two major parties however, the dynamics are more fluid and there is a real possibility of a change in personnel.

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The Minister for Agriculture Mr Yates, should more than comfortably lead the Fine Gael showing and canter home. But the Minister of State, Avril Doyle, has a battle royal on her hands with her running mate, the party's third candidate, Michael D'Arcy.

These two have played musical chairs with the same seat for three general elections. In 1987, when FG lost one of its three seats, it was the Gorey man, D'Arcy, who went out. Two years later he was back in the Dail at the expense of Ms Doyle.

In 1992 she bounced back, leaving him out in the cold.

On this occasion, she could benefit from the high profile she has gained over the past four years. She is national chairwoman of the 1798 Commemoration Committee and has been in regular contact with groups in every corner of the county.

D'Arcy, however, has mounted an intensive campaign in what is probably his final effort to get back to the Dail. He has a solo run in Gorey and north Wexford, and his performance on first preferences there will determine whether he can turn the tables once again.

The internal dynamics of the Fianna Fail lineup are also interesting.

The sitting deputies, Hugh Byrne and John Browne, are favourites to hold their seats, but there is an ambitious newcomer, Den is Asple, in the lineup.

This Wexford town businessman has been given the formidable task of picking up a third seat for FF, but in the process of bidding for this he will pose a real threat to one or other of his party running mates.

John Browne, from Enniscorthy, is favoured to hold his seat, which could leave Hugh Byrne fighting it out with Asple. Byrne is the only candidate from the New Ross area, where there are over 13,000 registered voters, and he is hoping that local support there will be enough to bring him through.

Asple, in turn, is attempting to sweep up maximum FF support in south Wexford, where the party has allocated him exclusive canvassing rights.

Asple, a 51 year old accountant, was born in Galbally, Enniscorthy, and has strong sporting ties in golf and the GAA. His imposition as a candidate by the national executive caused protest and controversy at the FF selection convention, but he is putting all his resources and energy into the campaign.

"This is my shot at politics, and I'm giving it my all," he told a local paper.

For Labour, the former Minister for Health, Brendan Howlin, is expected to increase his vote in spite of the recent health controversies and despite a national decline in Labour support. He got more than 10,000 on the first count in 1992, representing 16.7 per cent of the poll.

Although his seat is considered to be as safe as any held by Labour may be deemed to be, he is not taking chances. Labour's campaign is comprehensive, but is concentrated primarily on the Wexford town area, where there are almost 20,000 voters.

For Democratic Left, a Wexford Corporation member, Michael Enright, will find it hard to make inroads against the "big guns" lined up against him. He polled 797 first preferences in 1992 and was eliminated after the third count with just 1,244 votes, far short of the quota of 8,696.

En right should turn in a much better performance this time, given the higher profile of DL in government and the transfer arrangement which will gain him late preferences from Labour and Fine Gael.

There are significant pockets of unemployment and deprivation in some of the rundown housing estates on the fringes of Wexford and other towns in the county.

But the all round prosperity evident in the "model county" leaves little room for the left to gain a foothold, and the balance of power there is unlikely to shift.