West Tyrone is the constituency of Mr Willie Thompson, the Ulster Unionist MP who was an outspoken opponent of the Belfast Agreement and one of the leading members of the United Unionist No campaign. Yet there is only one anti-agreement candidate, Mr Oliver Gibson of the DUP, standing for the Assembly.
West Tyrone is more than 60 per cent nationalist. In last year's Westminster election Mr Thompson was elected only because the nationalist vote was split between the SDLP and Sinn Fein. The DUP, on the other hand, gave Mr Thompson a clear run. It is a situation that nationalists in the constituency never want repeated.
The SDLP candidate, Mr Pat McDonnell, says there is a strong demand for nationalist unity. "A lot of people are hurting that Thompson got through on a split nationalist vote, and they feel he abused the position over the referendum," he says.
While there may be no formal voting pact between the SDLP and Sinn Fein, in practice a very high percentage of votes are expected to transfer between the two parties. Nationalists, angry at Mr Thompson's election in the past, are expected to turn out in large numbers and make maximum use of their votes by transferring to other nationalist candidates.
A calculation based on support for the parties in previous elections would suggest that the most likely outcome would be two seats each for the SDLP and Sinn Fein, and one each for the UUP and the DUP.
Both the SDLP and Sinn Fein are running three candidates on the basis that if there is a very high nationalist turnout with a strong transfer between the two parties there is the possibility of a fifth nationalist seat.
There will be fierce competition between the two parties. Sinn Fein has a very high-profile candidate in Mr Pat Doherty, who stood against Mr Thompson and Mr Joe Byrne of the SDLP in the Westminster election. His running mates are Mr Barry McElduff, a councillor, and Mr Seamus Devine, a community worker in Strabane, contesting his first election. Mr Doherty emphasises the gains made by Sinn Fein at local government level. A recent by-election win has made the party the biggest on Omagh District Council, and Sinn Fein members are currently chairing the councils in both Omagh and Strabane, the two main towns in the constituency.
Sinn Fein has trailed the SDLP in recent elections, but the party is known for good management of its vote, which is all-important in a PR election. In the Forum elections, the SDLP got the fifth seat ahead of Sinn Fein, but there were just 100 votes between them.
Mr Byrne, who is again standing for the SDLP in the constituency, is confident that his party will outpoll Sinn Fein. In an obvious reference to Donegal-based Mr Doherty, he says that all three SDLP candidates are local councillors, living and working in the constituency.
There has, however, been a slight hitch for the SDLP in the constituency. An Omagh councillor, Mr Paddy McGowan, who was not selected as a party candidate, is standing as an Independent. He is, however, unlikely to poll well enough to stay in the race until the end, and his votes should go back to the SDLP. Sinn Fein also has its thorn in the side. Mr Francie Mackey, who was elected as a Sinn Fein councillor in Omagh, is now a prominent member of the 32-County Sovereignty Committee, and he may deter some disgruntled republicans from voting to put Sinn Fein into a Northern Ireland Assembly.
The DUP's Mr Oliver Gibson, standing alone, should be easily elected. In addition to the party's 16 per cent support, he should also get votes from anti-agreement Ulster Unionists, who supported Mr Thompson's stand.
The UUP is putting up two candidates, which would appear very ambitious given that the party had just 18 per cent of the vote in the 1996 Forum election. They are both strongly pro-agreement. There is a danger that the party could be spreading its vote too thinly, opening up the possibility of a fifth nationalist sneaking in with transfers.
A degree of unity can also be expected, however, between the UUP and the DUP in order to keep nationalists out. The parties will be focusing on getting a high turnout from their own side of the community.
West Tyrone candidates:
Joe Byrne (SDLP), Pat McDonnell (SDLP), Eugene McMenamin (SDLP), Pat Doherty (Sinn Fein), Barry McElduff (Sinn Fein), Seamus Devine (Sinn Fein), Derek Hussey (UUP), Alastair Patterson (UUP), Oliver Gibson (DUP), Ann Gormley (Alliance), Tommy Owens (WP), Laurence O'Kane (Community and Environmental Conservation Campaign), Paddy McGowan (Independent Community), Robert Johnstone (NLP), Johnny McLaughlin (Soc).
1997 Westminster election: UUP 34.58%, SDLP 32.07%, Sinn Fein 30.86%, Alliance 1.79%.