Mowlam takes great risk to keep loyalists talking

The talks are the overriding preoccupation of the Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam

The talks are the overriding preoccupation of the Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam. The extraordinary risk she is taking this morning by meeting prisoners at the Maze is an attempt to rescue the Stormont negotiations.

It is understood that her civil servants were not overjoyed at the notion. But clearly Dr Mowlam has taken to heart Albert Reynolds's dictum: "Who's afraid to take risks for peace?"

The vote of no confidence in the peace process by Ulster Defence Association prisoners last weekend was the most ominous indication so far that the loyalist ceasefire was about to unravel.

The vote took place only days after the killing of a Catholic man, Edmund Treanor, at the Clifton Bar in north Belfast, a deed many believe was the work of the UDA rather than the Loyalist Volunteer Force.

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The writing was on the wall. The faces of political associates of the UDA such as Mr Gary McMichael and Mr John White said even more than their words. Drastic action was needed.

The visit by Dr Mowlam is a last-ditch effort to ensure that Mr McMichael and Mr White can attend the reopening of the Stormont talks on Monday. If they are still unable to do so it will be a severe blow to her political prestige and some believe it could mark the end of her political career.

Early release of prisoners is obviously a key priority for loyalists. But this is not on offer in the current situation. Dr Mowlam cannot give way to threats of a walkout from one party, because all the others would then adopt that tactic.

Her approach will be: within the talks everything is possible, outside the talks there is no way I can argue for early releases.

At around the same time that Dr Mowlam is meeting the UDA five, a liaison group of top-level civil servants from the two governments is meeting in London. Although virtually everybody in the peace process knows this is happening, Dublin rather absurdly will not admit officially that it is taking place.

The two governments are reading from the same page, more or less, these days.

It is understood that the British side produced a document listing heads of agreement for possible presentation to the talks on Monday. Dublin responded with a longer document of its own.

But both governments are watching the evolving political situation very closely. They may decide not to present a joint document or even separate documents on Monday.

Instead the chairman, Senator George Mitchell, may come up with proposals. He also has the option of moving the process on even though the parties cannot agree on a list of key issues: this option was also mentioned during the decommissioning impasse.

The Ulster Democratic Party, political wing of the UDA, seemed at least marginally optimistic last night that it would be able to send representatives to the talks. However, it is considered highly unlikely at this stage that the Progressive Unionist Party, political wing of the UVF, will be there.

Under the rule of "sufficient consensus", at least one of the loyalist parties is required in order to ensure that a majority of the unionist community is represented. Therefore, if the UDP and PUP are both absent, no decisions can be taken at the talks.

There are worrying developments for supporters of the peace process in the republican camp. Dark mutterings are being heard about "securocrats" in Dublin whose determined pursuit of republicans south of the Border, with the apparent backing of the Government, is said to be making life difficult for the Sinn Fein leadership.

The gradual emergence of Ms Bernadette Sands McKevitt, sister of the hunger-striker Bobby Sands, as a spokeswoman for an alternative strategy is also clearly a matter of concern to the mainstream leadership.

A week is a long time in normal politics. But in Northern Ireland, one hour can be an eternity. Dr Mowlam has crossed a political Rubicon and her daring and imaginative gesture just might succeed.

However, there are grounds also for pessimism. If she fails to persuade the UDA prisoners of the possibility of real movement within the talks, then the situation here could get markedly worse both in political and security terms.

The last thing Northern Ireland needs to hear tomorrow afternoon is a UDA prisoners' spokesman telling the media: "There was nothing new; she made no concessions; why did she bother?"

Meanwhile, on the security side there are continuing worries about another pub attack or an assassination attempt on a high-profile loyalist or republican.

There are suggestions that the pub shooting in south Belfast on Tuesday night was carried out by Direct Action Against Drugs (DAAD), a front-group of the Provisional IRA. Eight men were killed by DAAD during the 199496 ceasefire.

The attempted bombing of Banbridge is being attributed to the breakaway Continuity IRA. The dogs of war are straining at the leash.