Most Chinese believe time for war with Taiwan has not arrived

"If Taiwan will not discuss unification, then I think China should attack Taiwan

"If Taiwan will not discuss unification, then I think China should attack Taiwan. Sure there will be sanctions and the economy will suffer, but that will last only one or two years, and if people are killed, well, that is the price that has to be paid. The important thing is that China will be great again."

These sentiments, voiced by an earnest young clerk in Beijing yesterday, underline one of the most ominous facets of the crisis over Taiwan. The impetus for military action - the "upcoming war" as it is now openly referred to - is coming not just from the leadership but from the people, whose patriotic fervour over lost territory smoulders in a way that it is difficult for non-Chinese to comprehend.

It is equally clear, however, from comments by people in Beijing and the provinces, that most believe that the time for war has not yet come.

"There is a Chinese saying chu shi you ming - before you send out the legions there must be a strong prerequisite," said a Beijing consultant. "The prerequisite is not strong enough yet."

READ MORE

Thus Beijing has decided to give Taiwan's President-elect, Mr Chen Shui-bian, some time to see if he can be persuaded to talk on Beijing's terms, i.e. on the basis of "one China".

That is why President Jiang Zemin, in his first reaction yesterday to the election of Mr Chen on Saturday, said he was willing to hold talks in the future, either in Taiwan or on the mainland. "But dialogue or talks should be on the basis that he first of all recognise the `one China principle'," said Mr Jiang, in remarks quoted by Chinese radio. "Under this precondition, anything can be discussed."

The Chinese President was responding to the call by Mr Chen yesterday for a peace summit with Beijing to "ease tensions and antagonisms", but there was nothing new in his remarks, nor in those of Mr Chen, who said he would discuss "one China" with Beijing, but that "one China" could not be the basis of discussions.

So stalemate seems inevitable and the patience of many ordinary Chinese is running out, as underlined by the angry remark of a Shanghai-born factory worker summing up the reaction of his friends: "I think that Chen is crazy and that the Taiwan people have made a big mistake for which they will pay."

For a few Chinese people, the election of Mr Chen is already sufficient pretext for war to recover what they regard as a "lost province". "We should hit them overnight with whatever might we can mobilise," a provincial vice-mayor was reported as saying in outrage. "Maybe the upcoming war will bring industry back again and will be good for the economy," commented an official in Shenyang, in the heart of China's northern rust belt.

Such remarks were especially typical of people over 40, said a Chinese businessman. "Young people tend to take a softer line, but lots of people are saying enough is enough. There's a sense of frustration, that Western bullying is still going on, that it's too long since we fought a war, and that it is about time China raised its hand again and showed that the United States is a paper tiger."

The situation is comparable to 1979 when China conducted a 17-day war with Vietnam despite threats of Russian intervention which did not materialise, he said. "It's very dangerous. It could trigger something very big."

Public opinion in China has been conditioned by the state media over many years, and also by a deep sense of grievance over a history of humiliation at the hands of Western powers. Television has maintained patriotic sentiment at a high pitch, especially since the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade last year, with frequent propaganda films on TV showing tanks and ships streaming into battle and Chinese planes downing US fighters in the Korean War.

But to make the point that for the time being there must be a measured response, the media has suddenly gone quiet on Mr Chen, who was vilified last week. Chinese academics explained the failure of Beijing's warnings against the election of Mr Chen by saying the result reflected the dissatisfaction of the masses in Taiwan at corruption and gangsterism.