Climate change is set to cause more extreme weather including more frequent heatwaves and stronger storms, an international science panel said today.
A review of the science on the links between climate and extreme events and disasters, conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), revealed impacts were already being felt as a result of rising temperatures.
A rise in the number of hot days had been seen globally, and in areas including North America, Europe and Australia, while some parts of the world had seen heavy rainfall increase, the report said.
The scientists said there was “medium confidence” that in some regions droughts had become longer and more intense, particularly in southern Europe and west Africa, but central North America and northern Australia had seen fewer or shorter dry spells.
By the end of this century, the frequency of heatwaves is set to soar if there are high levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades, while heavy rain is set to occur more often, the scientists said.
And the wind speed of tropical cyclones is set to increase, though they are not expected to become more frequent.
Thomas Stocker, one of the scientists leading the review, said: “For the high emissions scenario, it is likely that the frequency of hot days will increase by a factor of 10 in most regions of the world.
“Likewise, heavy precipitation will occur more often, and the wind speed of tropical cyclones will increase while their number will likely remain constant or decrease.”
Other extreme events likely to become more common include glacial lakes bursting and coastal erosion and flooding.
The report, which looked at how to manage the risks of extreme climate events, said coastal communities, those in major delta areas, small islands and mountain settlements, were exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of rising temperatures.
Developed countries were generally better able to cope with extreme events than poor countries, and most deaths from natural disasters occurred in developing nations, but all countries faced challenges in dealing with extremes.
The emergence of “megacities”, particularly in developing countries, meant there were now highly vulnerable urban communities, the report said.
Commenting on the report, Dr Simon Brown, climate extremes research manager at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “Human susceptibility to weather mainly arises through extreme weather events so it is appropriate that we focus on these which, should they change for the worse, would have wide-ranging and significant consequences.
“This review will be very helpful in progressing the science by bringing together a wide range of studies - not just on the physical weather aspects of climate extremes but also on how we might adapt and respond to their changes in the future.”
Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics and Political Science, said: “This expert review of the latest available scientific evidence clearly shows that climate change is already having an impact in many parts of the world on the frequency, severity and location of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts and flash floods.
“The report shows that if we do not stop the current steep rise in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, we will see much more warming and dramatic changes in extreme weather which are likely to overwhelm any attempts human populations might make to adapt to their impacts.”
PA