ANALYSIS: The leap in the Taoiseach's ratings should steel him for the tough decisions ahead
THE MODEST recovery in the fortunes of Taoiseach Brian Cowen and the two Coalition parties over the past three weeks could not have come at a better time, considering the range of vital decisions facing the Government over the next few weeks.
In particular the eight-point leap in the satisfaction rating of the Taoiseach should provide a badly needed boost to his confidence after the battering he has taken for the past 12 months.
The response of voters to the question about whether the Green Party should vote to stay in Coalition at its special conference on October 10th will also give some heart to the Government parties. While the general public want the Greens to leave office, by a margin of 43 per cent to 34 per cent, the party’s own voters want to stay in, by a massive 74 per cent to 19 per cent majority.
The detailed figures in the poll throw up some intriguing trends. For instance, the most popular party among the best-off AB voters is now Labour, while the strongest among the least well-off DE social category is Fine Gael. Both findings turn conventional political wisdom on its head.
While the Fianna Fáil vote has recovered a little since the last Irish Times poll, a breakdown of the figures for the core vote of the parties shows that Dublin is still the worst region of the country for the party; it is on just 13 per cent.
Fianna Fáil is well behind Labour and Fine Gael in Dublin, but has at least pulled back in front of Sinn Féin following its plunge into fourth place in the last poll.
Things are a bit better in the rest of the country, with the party on 19 per cent in Munster, 20 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 24 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.
Across the age groups, Fianna Fáil does best among the over-65s, where it is on 31 per cent, well ahead of its national average. It does worst among the 25-34-year-olds, where its vote is just 14 per cent, and only a little better among the 35-49s, where it gets 15 per cent.
In terms of social class, Fianna Fáil does best among farmers, where it gets 24 per cent, and among the best-off AB social category, where it is on 20 per cent.
Among all other social classes, its share of the vote remains below 20 per cent, with its worst score coming from the poorest C1 middle-class category.
The Fine Gael core vote is down since the last poll at the beginning of the month, but it remains ahead of Fianna Fáil in almost all age groups, regions and social classes.
In Dublin, Fine Gael is on 21 per cent of the vote; in the rest of Leinster it is also on 21 per cent, while it is on 23 per cent in Munster and 29 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.
In age terms, Fine Gael does best among the 50-64 age group, with it weakest category the 18-24
age group. In social terms the party is strongest among farmers, where it scores 43 per cent. Its next strongest category is the best-off AB voters, where it is just behind Labour and ahead of Fianna Fáil.
The surprise is that Fine Gael is the leading party in the DE social group, where it is far ahead of Labour and a few points ahead of Fianna Fáil. Fine Gael’s strongest category by far is the farming community, where it gets 43 per cent.
Labour is level with Fianna Fáil in terms of its national core vote of 18 per cent. In class terms Labour is the strongest in the AB category, where it is just ahead of Fine Gael, on 25 per cent. The party’s vote drops to 14 per cent among DE voters. In regional terms Labour is strongest in Dublin, where it is the biggest party on 25 per cent. It also does very well in the Rest of Leinster, where it is on 21 per cent, the same share of the vote as Fine Gael. Labour is at 13 per cent of the vote in Munster and 9 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.
In age terms Labour is strongest in the 35-49 age group, and weakest in the 18-24 age group.
Its support is evenly spread across the other age groups.
The Green Party support has moved up by one point since the last poll. The party will be encouraged by the fact that it is strongest in Dublin, where it needs to concentrate its support to hold its Dáil seats, but it would need to gain further support in the capital to have a realistic chance of achieving that objective.
Sinn Féin is strongest in
Dublin, at 10 per cent, and its support is then evenly spread across the rest of the country, with 8 per cent in the three other regions.
In class terms the party’s vote is heavily concentrated among C2 and particularly among DE voters, where it is strongest. It gets very little support among higher earners. In age terms it does best among 18-24-year-olds, where it gets almost as much support as the Labour Party.
The level of support for Independents and Others has declined a little since the beginning of the month. Dublin is the strongest region, with Connacht-Ulster coming next.
