ANALYSIS:MARY HANAFIN must have been delighted with yesterday's headlines. Facing into a teacher conference season and under pressure on class size and a range of other "broken promises", the Minister would have been relieved to see the morning news agenda dominated by the school patronage issue.
This time last year, Hanafin was the poster girl of the teacher unions, moving from one standing ovation to the next as she toured the various conferences. Indeed, John Carr got into some trouble with delegates last year when, in the run-in to the election, he anticipated her return to the education brief with some gusto.
The Minister told last year's conference clearly of planned cuts in class sizes. She even spelt out a timetable for this great step forward.
But, as Carr noted acidly yesterday, this commitment was abandoned before the ink was dry on the Programme for Government.
Yesterday, Hanafin returned to the scene of the crime - and the teachers were furious. In a powerful speech, Carr talked on several occasions about the "betrayal" felt by primary teachers all over the State.
Teachers feel they have been betrayed on class size - their number one priority - by one of their own, a former teacher who understands their needs more than most.
That is why Hanafin was jeered when she sought to explain away the broken promises yesterday morning. The INTO trusted the Government on the issue and it believes that trust has been betrayed.
The rift between Hanafin and the INTO is a setback for the Minister. The INTO is by some distance the most powerful and influential teacher union in the State, with a hand in every parish.
The union showed its mettle last winter when it managed to mobilise 18,000 parents and others to public meetings on class size. These huge numbers reflected the power of the union - but also the genuine concerns of parents on the issue.
Every parent knows that their child cannot realise their full potential in classes of 28 and more. The Government recognised this as far back as 2002 when it promised classes of fewer than 20 for all under-nines by 2007. Classes of 20 pupils or fewer is the recognised international best practice for primary schools.
As Carr noted yesterday, if there was a convincing case for smaller class sizes a decade ago, the imperative to take action remains strong today. At present, the Republic has the second-largest classes in the EU.
The union is now on a collision course with the Minister. Yesterday it backed all options up to and including industrial action to highlight overcrowded classes.
Any such action - including one-day strikes - would breach the national pay agreement, Towards 2016, and see members possibly losing out on future pay rises.
Yesterday Hanafin said firmly that tough sanctions would apply to anyone who broke the terms of the pay deal.
The INTO would be extremely reluctant to take industrial action. It is a serious-minded union, which puts a premium on responsibility and moderation.
But class size is very much its issue. It can roll out more meetings and press releases, but it knows that only the threat of strike action will concentrate minds in the Department of Education and around the Cabinet table.
