Many fear the president will take the military option, but a peaceful transition of power is still possible
CONFRONTED BY a divided army and disintegrating political support, Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh yesterday faced the most important decision of his more than 30-year presidency.
Yesterday’s military mutiny left Mr Saleh with two options: a civil war between the defecting army divisions and his highly trained loyal units, or a peaceful political resolution.
The resignation of Maj Gen Ali Mohsin Saleh Al-Ahmar vastly increased the likelihood of a violent military ending to Mr Saleh’s rule.
He and many of the commanders who resigned yesterday were from the powerful Hashid tribe, and the additional loss of support from its tribal leader further weakened Mr Saleh’s power base.
Although many fear the stubborn president will take the military option, the possibility of a peaceful transition of power remains.
His main hope of averting mass bloodshed is through dialogue with international mediators.
Last night the foreign affairs minister was on his way to Saudi Arabia. There was uncertainty surrounding the issue of what exactly his orders were: was he to ask for help in brokering a deal with the defecting commanders and Yemen’s coalition of political opposition, the Joint Meeting Parties, who have firmly closed the door on all recent attempts at conciliation?
Or was he to plead for military support similar to the regional force of the Gulf Co-operation Council seen entering Bahrain to help quell unrest by anti-government protesters?
Military assistance from the neighbouring kingdom seems unlikely.
The prospect of being bogged down in another internal Yemeni conflict, as it was in the northern Houthi rebellion that spread across the Saudi border in 2009, will not appeal to Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom’s decision-makers also have conflicting interests: they provided financial support to both sides – the president and the tribes.
But western diplomats will be working behind closed doors to prevent a meltdown into a civil war similar to Libya’s.
The US has invested heavily in military aid and training in the impoverished Arab nation to help fight an increasingly threatening Al-Qaeda insurgency, seen by the US as an equal if not greater threat than Osama Bin Laden’s wing of the terrorist network in western Pakistan.
A descent into a military conflict and even more instability in the already failing state will strike fear into US policymakers.
But their efforts alone may not be enough to avert disaster.
Yesterday’s events tipped the balance of power greatly in favour of Yemen’s anti-government movement.
Mr Saleh’s fall appears inevitable – but how he leaves office is in his hands.
The rest of Yemen’s people sit and wait to see if the change they are hoping for will be peaceful.