ANALYSIS:Although neither side is too excited about the reform plan, extensive lobbying will take place in the coming weeks, writes MARTIN WALL
THE EXECUTIVE committees of most of the country’s public service unions have now spoken on the controversial pay and reform agreement and it is now up to the members on the ground to decide the fate of the deal.
Members can expect extensive lobbying in the coming weeks on a deal which those in favour say will guarantee no further pay cuts or compulsory redundancies until 2014 and provide a framework for potentially recovering pay lost in the recent cuts. Those against argue the agreement provides no such assurances and requires staff to sign up to unpalatable work practice changes.
Nobody on any side is wild about the deal and the choice effectively comes down to whether it represents the best available option or whether more could be secured as a result of further negotiations and/or industrial action.
For several days it appeared that the No side was in the ascendancy. However, on Tuesday night the fightback began with Siptu’s Jack O’Connor declaring that the “balance of advantage” rested with acceptance.
The general secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (Ictu), David Begg, will today address the conference of the PSEU and his comments on the deal will be carefully analysed.
Yesterday the Government entered the debate with a formal statement of its intent to operate any new agreement in “absolute good faith” – a move undoubtedly designed to counter the concerns that a clause in the deal allowed it to renege on commitments if there was an economic downturn.
The first ballot results will be available from the start of May but it could be a month later before the full picture emerges on whether the deal will be accepted across the public service.
The deal was negotiated by the Ictu public services committee and ultimately it will be up to this body, following the ballots in constituent unions, to decide on whether it should be adopted.
However, there is some considerable debate on the process that should be followed and on whether unions which reject the deal in a vote of members will be bound to accept it if it is backed by a majority on the committee.
Historically, each union on the committee has been given a “weight” to take account of its membership before a vote is taken. However, unions such as the TUI and Unite have argued that such a “majority rule” process cannot be used in the current circumstances. The TUI has contended that in any event this would be against official Ictu policy as adopted in 2003.
If there is a narrow Yes majority there is likely to be a serious row about whether unions which have rejected the deal should be bound by the outcome.
As a succession of union executive committees last week urged a rejection of the deal, some commentators proclaimed the agreement dead in the water, a move which was always premature given that Siptu had not considered the proposals.
Siptu believed it had secured a number of significant concessions at Croke Park, including curbs on the possible outsourcing of public service work. Even with Siptu’s backing, the deal is likely to be rejected if members of other unions follow the advice of their executives.
However, there are likely to be a few more twists in the story over the next six weeks or so.
Last week the executive of Impact, the largest public sector union, rocked the trade union establishment when it decided that it could not recommend acceptance of the deal.
Impact is one of the most pro-partnership unions and the question was asked if Impact could not get it across the line with its executive what chance had the agreement in ballots across the public service.
However, there are now indications that Impact could take a softer line. Its executive committee will meet tomorrow to decide on what recommendation to make to members. A neutral stance by the Impact executive could improve the prospects of the membership voting to accept the Croke Park deal.
While the outcome of the ballot results is unknown as yet, there is also considerable uncertainty about what will happen if the deal is rejected.
Already the union representing lower-paid civil servants, the CPSU, has warned that its industrial action campaign will be reinstituted if members vote against the Croke Park deal. This could involve further counter closures and work-to-rules at the Passport Office.
Siptu has also said that the alternative to accepting the deal is continuing and presumably escalating the industrial action campaign.
On the other hand, the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation made clear that it was not advocating further industrial action. Instead it wants talks on its proposals for reform.
There have also been suggestions that the deal could be “tweaked” or clarified.
The Government yesterday offered clarification of the so-called “get-out-of-jail” card in the deal.
However, it appears that there will not be any move at the moment to bring the parties back together again in advance of the ballots being counted.
Any renegotiation would involve a revised document being sent out to members again.
It would also see more time elapse this year before the reform package was put in place. It is the reform that will generate the money to fund any reimbursement of the pay cuts.
And the question remains as to how any delay in making savings this year would impact on the prospect of securing pay restoration in the review scheduled for next spring.