This survey in the Republic of Ireland was conducted exclusively on behalf of The Irish Times by MRBI Ltd among a national quota sample of 1,000 representative of the 2.5 million electors aged 18 upwards, covering 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies. Personal in-home interviewing took place on Saturday September 27th, 1997, and the accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 3 per cent.
In all respects, the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by The Marketing Society of Ireland, and by ESOMAR (European Society).
Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgment is given to The Irish Times and MRBI Ltd.
Poll indicates many voters may be considering voting across conventional party lines
Chairman, MRBI Ltd
The first Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll of the 1990 presidential election campaign provided very limited evidence of the eventual outcome, with Brian Lenihan positioned 15 points ahead of Mary Robinson and Austin Currie a further 10 points behind in third place. Apart from the actual figures, however, the primary factor which had to be considered - and which also applies in today's situation - was that the first poll was but a benchmark from which conclusions relating to trends or even potential trends could not be drawn. (Subsequent campaign research clearly identified that while Brian Lenihan's support remained virtually static, that for Mary Robinson improved by 12 points over three weeks, and she was also in line to capture a majority of Austin Currie's transfers.)
Today's survey, the first in a series in the current campaign, was conducted last weekend, before nominations had closed, and should therefore be seen primarily as an initial bench-mark, and although Derek Nally's name did not appear on the survey ballot paper there are a number of straws in the wind which campaign strategists may find useful.
When the undecided are set aside, Mary McAleese is currently leading the field on 40 per cent (Table B), which is marginally below the corresponding figure for Brian Lenihan in the three-way race seven years ago. Mary Banotti (27 per cent) is ahead of Adi Roche (25 per cent), with Rosemary Scallon (Dana) in fourth place on 8 per cent.
It is doubtful if strategists will be happy with the level of support which each of the party nominees is receiving from their relevant parties at this stage. This does not arise because of any significant support for Dana - the non-party nominee.
It is clear that many potential voters are currently thinking across conventional party lines. This may be due to early confusion, which may partially correct itself when the campaign proper begins and the serious business of presenting the five candidates gets under way.
Currently, just half of those who claim to support Fianna Fail intend to vote for Mary McAleese (this compares with 73 per cent for Brian Lenihan in 1990); a fifth favour Adi Roche and one-eighth Mary Banotti. Similarly, just half of Fine Gael supporters currently back Mary Banotti. A fifth opt for Mary McAleese and almost a similar volume for Adi Roche. The Labour nominee currently attracts no more than two-fifths of that party's support, with Mary Banotti attracting rather more than one in four, and Mary McAleese one in seven.
It is evident that many messages have yet to reach the eyes and ears of the electors, on top of which two further factors have to be taken into account by the respective mentors.
To date only one candidate has had to contend with controversy, and since Adi Roche started as the bookmakers' favourite, it would appear that she has taken a drop in support over the past few weeks. Few will forget the 1990 campaign in this regard, and the four weeks which remain may yet be very revealing. In this poll we have no indication of the nature of the likely trends except that in addition to being ahead at the moment on first preferences, Mary McAleese is also very well positioned in terms of potential transfers.
In so far as it is relevant to say so, if the presidential election was held today, Mary McAleese would be elected on the third count. It is important to point out, however, that the survey figures are not, as yet, predicting or even indicating that this will happen, since there is considerable scope for campaign planners to change strategy and to take remedial action where necessary. In essence, sample survey research cannot accurately forecast the outcome of an election four weeks in advance.
A final complication is the nomination of Derek Nally, which brings the candidates to five, and which will certainly influence the current support figures and potentially the outcome. At the weekend, women felt they were generally more likely to vote than men, while quite a number of men actually stated that they would not vote in the scenario presented. The entry of Derek Nally will certainly change the horizon as it appears at the moment - the extent and nature of change will become evident as the campaign develops.