THE UUP, the DUP and Sinn Fein have all lost electoral support since the Northern Ireland Forum elections in June.
The more moderate approach adopted by Mr John Hume, Lord Alderdice, Mr David Ervine and Mr Gary McMichael to negotiation and compromise, particularly during the overheated marching season, has reflected positively on their parties and on their personal satisfaction ratings, according to the latest Irish Times opinion poll. The survey was conducted last week by Coopers & Lybrand, in association with MRBI.
As multi party talks get under way again in Belfast the findings may encourage the emergence of a more conciliatory approach by the participants. Mr David Trimble and the Rev Ian Paisley will be concerned at declines of 4 points in their core vote, leaving the UUP at 20 per cent and the DUP at 15 per cent. Sinn Fein, which was excluded from the talks because of the collapse of the IRA ceasefire, dropped 3 points to 13 per cent. The United Kingdom Unionist party (UKUP) dropped 2 points to 1 per cent.
The SDLP emerges as the party with the largest degree of support in Northern Ireland, with a core vote of 22 per cent. The Alliance Party has increased its showing since June and now has a core vote of 8 per cent, up 2 points, while the Progressive Unionist Party and the Ulster Democratic Party each receive 3 per cent of the popular vote.
The fortunes of the parties are reflected in the public's perception of the quality of political leadership. Mr Hume draws support from across both communities and registers a satisfaction rating of 62 per cent, comprising 86 per cent Catholic and 44 per cent Protestant approval.
On the basis of the Alliance Party's growing support base, now composed of 9 per cent Protestants and 6 per cent Catholics, Lord Alderdice might be expected to have performed very well. But an error during transmission of the questionnaire caused his name to be omitted.
The PUP leader, Mr David Ervine, secured the second highest satisfaction rating for political leadership, at 47 per cent, and had a positive score in both communities. Next in order came the UDP leader, Mr Gary McMichael, with a satisfaction rating of 43 per cent.
Mr David Trimble, of the UUP, and the Rev Ian Paisley, of the DUP, received satisfaction ratings of 41 per cent but, in the aftermath of Drumcree, Catholic dissatisfaction was higher with Mr Trimble, at 75 per cent, than with Dr Paisley, at 72 per cent.
The most unpopular party leader in Northern Ireland was Mr Gerry Adams, of Sinn Fein, with a 26 per cent cross community score. This comprised 51 per cent of Catholics and 8 per cent of Protestants. Dissatisfaction with his political leadership touched 74 per cent within the Protestant community, while 27 per cent of Catholics were also critical of him.
Support for inter party election pacts is stronger within the Catholic community, but even there, a narrow majority 47 to 46 per cent favours a "stand alone" approach by the SDLP and Sinn Fein.