Public opinion has burst like a dam under the persistent strain of political corruption and stroke politics and there has been a 10-point shift towards the smaller parties and Independent candidates.
The size of the simultaneous loss in support by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is unprecedented in recent times and follows internal party inquiries on planning corruption in Dublin along with related disclosures at the Flood and Moriarty tribunals. Fianna Fail has also been affected by the nomination of Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Investment Bank.
The seismic shift in opinion follows a number of fault lines, affecting both the Coalition Government and the main opposition party. The Government's satisfaction level went into free-fall during the past two months, dropping 12 points to 48 per cent, marginally short of its lowest ever level. At the same time, support for Fianna Fail nose-dived to 45 per cent, down six points to a three-year low.
Even the Teflon Taoiseach was affected. Northern Ireland successes and a booming economy were discounted as the public reduced Bertie Ahern's popularity rating to 64 per cent, down five points since April. But, within Fianna Fail, solidarity ruled and he maintained a spectacular support rating of 91 per cent.
If the public did not blame Mr Ahern directly for the O'Flaherty appointment or for insidious corruption within Fianna Fail, it had no qualms about demanding higher standards from Mary Harney. By a margin of almost five to one, the public rejected the O'Flaherty nomination as wrong. And outrage was most evident within the Progressive Democrats where supporters were divided at a ratio of 83 to 10 against. Even within Fianna Fail, the O'Flaherty nomination wouldn't fly and supporters gave it the thumbs-down by a margin of almost three to one.
The Progressive Democrats might not cringe under the shadow of the tribunals, but Ms Harney's support for the nomination of Mr O'Flaherty and her political misjudgment in drawing conclusions from Charlie Haughey's £8.5 million benefit fund saw her satisfaction ratings hit a new low. A 13-point drop in popularity, to 46 per cent, brought the Tanaiste into new territory, where she now trails Ruairi Quinn but is comfortably ahead of John Bruton. At the same time, support for the Progressive Democrats remained static at 4 per cent.
The PDs may be hurting, but John Bruton has real trouble. At a time when Fine Gael should be coasting towards a likely autumn general election, a wheel has come off the party bandwagon and he himself is losing ground.
The last time Fine Gael fell to an 18 per cent low, in 1994, it precipitated a leadership challenge. But there are no obvious challengers this time. And while Mr Bruton's overall satisfaction rating dropped three points to 39 per cent, he still attracts 69 per cent support within Fine Gael.
Ruairi Quinn has something to smile about. In avoiding the tendrils of sleaze affecting Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, support for the Labour Party jumped three points to 13 per cent. More important in terms of morale, however, it overtook Fine Gael as the second-largest party in Dublin. And in the context of the Tipperary South by-election, it pushed up its support level to 15 per cent in Munster. The icing on the cake was a marginal, one-point rise in Mr Quinn's own satisfaction rating, making him the only party leader to buck the downward trend.
If the shift away from Fianna Fail and Fine Gael becomes established, it promises an upsurge in the strength of Independents and small parties at the next general election.
The Green Party now attracts 8 per cent support in Dublin and 5 per cent in Leinster, with a 5 per cent overall figure. Sinn Fein continues to make solid advances and has upped its profile by two points to 5 per cent overall. This has manifested itself in a 6 per cent support rating in both Dublin and Connacht/Ulster.
The biggest emerging voting block is the Independents, including the Workers' Party and the Socialist Party, which has grown to 10 per cent overall and has a 12 per cent profile in Dublin.
The delicate balance underpinning the system can be appreciated if a new MRBI formula, designed to counteract traditional overstatements of Fianna Fail support in opinion polls, is taken into account. This would give Fianna Fail 40 per cent, Fine Gael 19 per cent, Labour 16 per cent, the Progressive Democrats 4 per cent, the Green Party 6 per cent, Sinn Fein 5 per cent, and 10 per cent for others. On those figures, any election would be wide open.