SENIOR loyalists are again warning that the joint Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and Ulster De fence Association (UDA) ceasefire might break down if the IRA steps up its violence after next month's parliamentary and local government elections in the North.
The loyalists say the protests by the remaining UVF and UDA inmates in the Maze and the continued church burning around the North are symptomatic of the growing anger over the continued IRA campaign.
Senior loyalist figures say they expect the IRA will restart its campaign in the North after its defacto ceasefire to facilitate the Sinn Fein electoral campaigns for the Westminster election on May 1st and the local government elections on May 21st.
However, the loyalists say that if the IRA decides to step up its campaign after the elections then they will almost certainly respond. There is said to be growing pressure within the loyalist paramilitaries to drop their ceasefire, declared in October 1994, or face serious splits.
One senior loyalist figure dismissed speculation that there would have to be a meeting of the joint UDA and UVF leaderships under the umbrella Combined Loyalist Military Command (CLMC) structure before ending the ceasefire. The source said media reports that the ceasefire could not be called off without a meeting of the CLMC was a "fiction". Any decision to restart an open campaign of violence would be taken unilaterally.
In fact, the UDA, UVF and the smaller loyalist group, the Red Hand Commando (RHC), have all carried out attacks on republicans since last December.
The RHC is suspected of having carried out the unclaimed bomb attack on the Sinn Fein offices in Derry two weeks ago. The UVF was responsible for planting a bomb containing 12kg of commercial explosives at the Sinn Fein office in Monaghan last month. The UDA was responsible for the murder of Mr John Slane in west Belfast last month.
It is not clear which group was responsible for planting a 100lb bomb outside the Sinn Fein offices on the Falls Road on Monday. The bomb, similar to another left outside the New Lodge Sinn Fein office on Easter Sunday, failed to explode. Security sources in the North described both devices as being crudely made.
None of these loyalist attacks has been admitted by any of the groups responsible. This tactic, known as "no claim, no blame may he dropped if the IRA steps up its campaign after the May elections, the loyalists say.
Despite the increasingly threatening posture of the loyalists, senior sources admit to being constrained by the fact that the chances for early remission for the 50 loyalist prisoners would be severely diminished if the loyalist ceasefire was officially terminated. They are also acutely conscious of the fact that many of their members would be arrested and face long terms of imprisonment in the event of a ceasefire breakdown.
The loyalist leaders point to the rapid growth in the number of republican remand prisoners which has accompanied the restarting of the IRA campaign.
While loyalist prisoner numbers have been dropping dramatically, republican numbers have increased considerably and the prospect for remission opportunities for republicans looks bleak.
However, the loyalists believe that if the IRA steps up its violence after the two elections, and overall loyalist militancy increases, then the paramilitaries will have no option but to end their ceasefire.
The mainline loyalists deny any involvement in the spate of church burning in Northern Ireland. They point blame at a group calling itself the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF).
This group, according to senior loyalists, includes former associates of the Portadown loyalist, Billy Wright, who is serving a jail term for threatening to kill a local woman who was a witness in a case against one of his associates.