THERE IS a line in the film The Silence of the Lambs when the senior FBI figure warns the Jody Foster character about making assumptions. To assume makes an "ass" of "U" and "me", he points out with pedantic wit.
It is an aphorism the loyalist fringe parties, the Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) and the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP), are contemplating at the moment.
There is assumption that should the UDP and PUP fail win any of the 90 seats in the `18 constituency list system, they will certainly gain two seats each in the "top up" system, which was designed specifically for their benefit.
Under this system, the votes in all constituencies will be aggregated and the 10 most successful parties will secure an additional two seats each, creating an overall electoral body of 110 members.
Mr Billy Hutchinson of the PUP, which reflects UVF views, and Mr David Adams of the UDP, which understands the UDA line, are confident their parties will figure in the "Top 10", and that would guarantee them a place at all party negotiations.
But they are also conscious of imponderable that could knock them off this crucial chart. Let's look at which parties may figure in the "Top 10".
Based on previous and recent elections, the six parties likely to amass the most votes (not necessarily in this order) are 1, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 2, SDLP 3, DUP 4, Sinn Fein 5, Alliance 6, Mr Robert McCartney's United Kingdom Unionist Party.
Mr McCartney's party would be expected to come sixth based on his showing in the North Down constituency Westminster by election last year. He may take one or possibly two candidates to the forum with him, plus two more by virtue of coming sixth, as would seem likely, in the top up chart.
What happens thereafter is more problematic. There are four more positions in the "Top 10", two of which it is intended the PUP and UDP should fill. But it is likely that also competing for these positions will be parties such as the Workers' Party, Democratic left, the Northern Ireland Conservatives, and the Greens.
The Irish Republican Socialist Party (IRSP) has yet to decide whether to contest the election. The Natural Law Party (NLP) may again bounce into the frame, and there is also the possibility that popular independent minded nationalists (for instance, Ms Bernadette McAliskey) or unionists could, like Mr McCartney, run under the banner of independent parties.
So all told there will be at least four parties, and possibly six or more, competing for the remaining four positions with the UDP and the PUP. Matters would be further confused should, say, Screaming Lord Sutch and his Monster Raving Looney Party decide to mix it with the Northern politicos.
Mr Hutchinson of the PUP believes the main players fighting for the final four positions are the PUP, UDP, Workers' Party, Democratic Left and the Northern Ireland Conservatives.
He reckons the PUP and UDP would need to fare disastrously if they could not take two of the final four places in the chart.
He is concerned though, about assumptions that voters dithering between voting for a loyalist party or a mainstream unionist party may plump for the major party, figuring that the PUP and UDP are at least guaranteed places in the Top 10.
What he does not fear is the "flippancy factor". He said yesterday "People here know there is a lot to play for this time. I don't think they will be voting for Lord Sutch ahead of us."
Mr Adams of the UDP said it would be a "bad day" if his party and the PUP could not at least feature in the "Top 10". He expresses the same caveats as Mr Hutchinson but reckons they will be in the chart, most likely at number seven and eight.
"We're not making any assumptions but one factor that does favour us is that we couldn't ask for a higher profile at the moment, which must be of some benefit to us," he added.
