A poll carried out by MRBIfor TG4 predicts an increased share of the North Tipperary vote for former Fine Gael minister Mr Michael Lowry in the next general election.
The constituency is an important one for all the political parties as the Fianna Fáil TD Mr Michael O’Kennedy is retiring at the end of the current Dáil.
From a sample of 400 voters in the constituency, Mr Lowry got a 32 per cent share, up three points from his showing in the 1997 general election. This would be enough to put him over the quota and for his second preferences to be distributed.
The poll also showed sitting Fianna Fáil TD and Minister for Defence Mr Smith improving his first preference count from 18 per cent in 1997 to 27 per cent now.
The MRBI commentary states that the destination of the third seat vacated by Mr O’Kennedy will hinge on transfers and events between now and the next election.
With Labour Senator Kathleen O’Meara registering a three per cent increase to 13 per cent; Fine Gael’s Councillor Noel Coonan on 12 per cent and newcomer to the Fianna Fáil ticket, Councillor Marie Hoctor on 12 per cent, the MRBI breakdown shows Lowry’s transfers "going heavily to O’Meara and noticeably not to Coonan in sufficient numbers".
With Mr Smith’s surplus going to Hoctor, the MRBI states "The critical issue is the likely positioning of the three candidates after the election of Lowry and Smith and eliminations. The figures indicate that Kathleen O’Meara is the most favourably positioned with Marie Hoctor also well in contention."
While ranking Mr Coonan as an outsider at the moment, the commentary does point out that the impact of new Fine Gael leader, Mr Michael Noonan, from the neighbouring constituency of Limerick East "may influence the situation and the period between now and the actual election holds the key."
From the mock ballot paper used in the survey, Ms Margaret Carey of the National Party registered a two per cent share of first preferences (excluding undecided) and another declared candidate, Mr Gillies Mac Bain did not register with those polled.
On other matters dealt with in the poll, 92 per cent responded that a TD should have to resign when found to have evaded tax through offshore accounts and 89 per cent said that a TD found to have given political favours as a result of a financial contribution should have to resign.
But while 83 per cent of those polled felt that the former Fianna Fáil TD Mr Liam Lawlor should have to resign from the Dáil, opinions about Mr Lowry were more divided. While 36 per cent said that he should resign, 48 disagreed and 16 per cent had no opinion on the matter.
Meanwhile, Fine Gael will select a candidate to contest the Tipperary South by-election next Saturday (February 24th) at 8.30 p.m. in the Cahir House Hotel, Cahir. The by-election follows the death last September of Theresa Ahern, the Fine Gael deputy for the constituency.
