A lottery and an auction are among options being considered by the Department of Public Enterprise to award the contract for a new power station to meet rapidly expanding demand. We won't know until next March, because a decision on the contract will not be made before then.
This means that the earliest date at which much-needed extra generating capacity will be available is March 2002, by which time power cuts could well be a fact of life for consumers.
The leisurely approach to the problem is outlined in a discussion document entitled "The allocation of capacity in the natural gas network for the generation of electricity". It predicts that there is "adequate capacity in the natural gas network to meet final demand until 2004".
Ironically, the document was produced by the Department of Public Enterprise on October 21st, the day the ESB came within minutes of power cuts because a surge in demand coincided with overhauls in several small power stations and the breakdown of the water pump at Aghada, Co Cork.
It was only thanks to the work of repair crews at Aghada that 150 megawatts was restored to the system and cuts were averted. On October 21st, demand was 3,350 megawatts. Last Wednesday, November 17th, it reached its highest peak of 3,573. By next January, it will be approaching 3,800 megawatts a day.
The maximum capacity of the system is 4,350 megawatts. Although this will rise by 160 megawatts next month, when the latest gas-powered generating unit at Dublin's Poolbeg station comes on stream, it will not be enough to keep pace with growth. This is now rising by 6 per cent, or over 200 megawatts, a year.
It is 12 years since the last station was built and, while there was over-capacity in the early 1990s, the number of new customers has risen from 20,000 a year then to 50,000 a year today.
It is in this context that the Department's own policy document has to be assessed. While it expresses confidence that the system can cope until 2004, it adds that extra infrastructure "could be established as early as 2002".
In recognition of the potential crisis, it also recommends that all extra capacity from the natural gas network, including reserves in the newly-found Corrib offshore field, "will be reserved specifically for the purpose of fuelling new gas-fired power stations and will be allocated to selected power producers".
There are 10 consortiums bidding to build new stations which, between them, could double the present ESB output. However, the other groups would only be competing to supply directly the top 28 per cent of customers, who only need 700 megawatts.
Like the ESB, all the new stations would be dependent on gas from the Corrib field - still an unknown quantity - until an interconnector can be built to access British and continental gas supplies.
The document recommends that the Minister for Public Enterprise, Ms O'Rourke, look at four options for awarding the contract for the new plant. The first is an auction in which bidders would buy lots "equivalent to the gas network peak capacity requirement of 100 megawatts".
This system of rights going to the highest bidders is recommended for reasons of "transparency and objectivity".
The lottery would be weighted on the number of megawatts offered. In other words, someone offering to build a 100-megawatt plant would get one "lottery ticket" for the draw and someone offering to build a 400-megawatt plant would get four tickets.
More conventional methods are also being considered. These include giving the contract to the producer who submits "the lowest maximum price per unit" for eligible customers, or assessing bids on the basis of their development plan.
On this option, the criteria would include the acquisition of a site, equipment procuration, connections to existing gas and electricity grids and planning permission. The contenders most likely to complete a station on time would be put on a shortlist for final adjudication.
The timeframe for the process includes a decision on which allocation scheme to adopt by the end of this month, enabling legislation by the end of December and a closing date for applications sometime in February.
The contract would be awarded before the end of March. On that basis a station could be completed by March 2002 - leaving two possible winters of power cuts.