Looking to the unorthodox

If the issues will not get the voters out, perhaps a few unorthodox candidates can do the trick

If the issues will not get the voters out, perhaps a few unorthodox candidates can do the trick. This would appear to be the hope of the campaign managers in Sweden and Finland as candidates include a charismatic former cleaning woman, a racing driver and a couple of outspoken politicians.

Low-key European Parliament campaigns have got under way in Helsinki and Stockholm, with the former afflicted by election fatigue and the latter facing into an election in which the key European issue, participation in the euro, has been kept off the agenda.

Observers say that in both cases the turnout is expected to be very low, perhaps at 40 per cent, probably favouring the more highly-motivated anti-European groups at the expense of ruling Social Democrats. Overall, party strengths in the Parliament are likely to remain unchanged.

As both are neutral, Europhile Finland and somewhat more sceptical Sweden are likely to see a lively debate on the evolving shape of Europe's security dimension. Ruling SDP parties will come under attack for allegedly bringing the EU closer to NATO and for preparing for a merger of the EU with the Western European Union. Both Prime Ministers deny this.

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In Sweden, the Eurosceptics are now part of an alliance keeping the SDP in power. However, that will not stop them attacking their government's tacit support for the NATO bombing of Serbia.

Crucially, however, the SDP has managed to defuse the euro as an election issue by deferring its party decision until March. Although the government is believed to favour participation in the euro it is not expected to start making the case vigorously until the Blair government gives the lead.

The strongly pro-european Conservatives have seen their role as the main voice of the opposition undermined by the departure of their leader, Mr Carl Bildt, to UN duty in Kosovo and are likely to lose at least one seat to the newly-invigorated Christian Democrats.

The SDP hopes that the personal unpopularity of the Prime Minister, Mr Goran Persson, can be counterbalanced by the man chosen to head their list, Mr Pierre Schori. He is Deputy Foreign Minister, a lowly role which speaks volumes about Mr Persson's well-known hostility toward him.

And the campaign has been enlivened by the surprise emergence of Ms Marit Paulsen as the chief, but eccentric, standard-bearer for the Liberals. A farmer's wife who campaigns in gumboots, Ms Paulsen made her name in the early 1980s with a book describing her life as a cleaner. She makes much of her empathy with the "ordinary people" and with the plight of refugees, citing her experience as a refugee child.

Finland's campaign is suffering from the exhaustion of party coffers by the March general election in which the SDP was returned to power. The five-party coalition is very stable.

The opposition Centre Party has spiced up the campaign by nominating the leading Eurosceptic and former foreign minister, Mr Pauvo Vayrynen, as its leading candidate. And the Conservatives have racing driver and friend of Mr Jacques Chirac, Mr Ari Vatanen.

Prediction Sweden: 22 seats. SDP likely to hold six seats. Conservatives may lose one or more of seven seats to Christian Democrats.

Finland: 16 seats. SDP, National Coalition and Centre Party likely each to hold four seats. No change overall likely.

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth is former Europe editor of The Irish Times