ISRAEL:THE LEADING candidates in today's vote to decide who will succeed Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert as the head of the ruling Kadima party have been stubbornly oblique throughout a largely uneventful primary campaign, but from the little they have said, the result could have a significant impact on the peace process with the Palestinians and the Syrians.
Foreign minister Tzipi Livni, who leads in opinion polls and who has been responsible for negotiations with the Palestinians, said in a rare interview published over the weekend that she is in favour of territorial concessions in the West Bank and on the Golan Heights.
Her main rival, transport minister Shaul Mofaz, was also a little more talkative over the weekend, saying that the Syrians were not yet ready to reach a comprehensive peace agreement with Israel.
Earlier in the campaign, one of his senior aides said it could take years to build the type of trust needed to conclude a deal with the Palestinians.
Winning the primary will not automatically catapult the victor into the prime minister's office. Whoever triumphs will have up to six weeks to form a new governing coalition. If they fail - many believe the fractious make-up of the current Israeli parliament ensures they will - Israelis will then go to elections within three months.
Since the start of the primary campaign, which was precipitated by Mr Olmert's decision to step down in the face of corruption charges, Ms Livni (50) has held a clear lead in opinion polls. The most recent surveys give her a seemingly unassailable lead of 15-20 points.
But the Livni camp is not cracking open the champagne quite yet. Only 50 to 60 per cent of the 74,000 Kadima members are expected to turn up at the polls today and it is generally accepted that Mr Mofaz has stronger links to the party's field operatives, who could play a vital role in delivering large blocs of voters.
The two other candidates, interior minister Meir Sheetrit and internal security minister Avi Dichter, have only managed to garner single-digit support in the polls, but should they win enough votes to ensure that neither Mr Mofaz nor Ms Livni gets more than 40 per cent.
A second round of voting will be held in a week's time between the two frontrunners.
A former chief of staff and former defence minister, Iranian-born Mr Mofaz (60) has emphasised his security credentials and has argued that his more hawkish views will make it easier for him to reconstitute a Kadima-led government because he will be able to pull in more hardline parties.
A former agent in Israel's Mossad spy agency and a one-time political hawk who opposed territorial compromise with the Palestinians, Ms Livni now supports a two-state solution to the conflict. She, too, has argued that she will be able to form a new governing coalition, but the polls are her strongest card, showing Kadima performing far better under her leadership in a general election than under Mr Mofaz's.