UK:Tories are riding high ahead of local polls, but mayoral election may save Gordon Brown, writes Frank Millar
KEN LIVINGSTONE and Boris Johnson today launch a final frantic pitch for support and the all-important second preference votes that could determine which of them wins tomorrow's election for London mayor.
Prime minister Gordon Brown and Conservative leader David Cameron likewise nervously await their first national contest, with local election results in England and Wales set to be closely analysed for what they may foretell about the next general election.
With the Conservatives riding high in the opinion polls, Mr Brown faces an uphill task to produce Labour gains to show an improvement in his party's performance since the same seats were contested four years ago at the height of the Iraq war controversy and Tony Blair's unpopularity. Mr Cameron's challenge is to build on his party's previous strong performance in terms of share of the vote (37 per cent in 2004) and seats won, and to show himself on course for 10 Downing Street.
The Conservative leader is hoping that a national "time for a change" mood will play to the advantage of Boris Johnson in London, while Mr Brown prays victory for Mr Livingstone can offset a predicted bad night elsewhere for Labour that could see his leadership opened to renewed questioning.
Balloons portraying Johnson ahead of Livingstone were raised above Westminster Bridge yesterday to illustrate that users of the Betfair exhange system are backing the Tory challenger to unseat the Labour incumbent. However, both candidates were continuing their inner-London, outer-London battle in search of real votes amid final opinion polls suggesting that Livingstone is either about to narrowly retain his grip on City Hall or be "swept" from power by a double-digit lead for Johnson on first preference votes.
Liberal Democrat candidate Brian Paddick, meanwhile, again refused to endorse either of the front-runners, insisting voters should give him their first preference and then - if he does not come in the top two in the first round - use their second preference to ensure "that the wrong man is kept out".
Mr Paddick used an article in yesterday's London Evening Standard to challenge assumptions spread by his opponents that a vote for him would be "wasted" in what has always been a two-horse race.
"Not this time. You get two votes," he insisted. "A first preference vote for me says, 'I agree Brian Paddick is the best candidate'; it says, 'I want a serious alternative to Ken Livingstone'. But with your second preference vote you can vote tactically to make sure the wrong guy does not get his hands on the keys to City Hall."
Having already cast his postal vote, Mr Paddick maintained he would only say who he considered "the wrong guy" when counting begins on Friday, while promising that he would not accept a job, if offered, from either Mr Livingstone or Mr Johnson.
Mr Livingstone, meanwhile, shrugged off yesterday's news that Labour MP Kate Hoey will work as an adviser to Mr Johnson on sport and the 2012 London Olympics, should the Tory challenger become Mayor. Ms Hoey took care to avoid breaching Labour Party rules by actually endorsing Mr Johnson against Mr Livingstone, and actually contradicted Mr Johnson's claim that she had agreed to be the first member of his administration.
"I have simply agreed ... that I will advise on a non-partisan basis in respect of my lifetime commitment to bringing sport to the people of London." Ms Hoey also compared her proposed role to that of Conservative MPs John Bercow and Patrick Mercer in advising prime minister Brown on terrorism and learning difficulties. However, Mr Livingstone said the Ulster-born MP was "bonkers" and had been "a sort of semi-detached member" of the Labour Party in recent years.
Mr Livingstone's eve-of-poll postcard and billboard message - "Don't Vote for A Joke - Vote for London" - seeks to exploit concerns evidenced in the opinion polls that many voters still don't consider Mr Johnson a "serious" candidate for mayor. In a switch of tactics, meanwhile, Mr Johnson sought to tie Mr Livingstone to Labour's difficulties nationally, telling undecided voters that victory for Labour would allow both the prime minister and the mayor "to think they can get away with anything and never be held to account".