Europe's longest serving leader, Jean-Claude Juncker, has said he would not advise Ireland to re-run the Lisbon Treaty referendum any time soon, and that there is therefore no chance it will come into force before the next European Parliament is elected next June.
Luxembourg's prime minister said the stalled reform treaty is unlikely to come into force before 2010.
"My guess would be that the treaty will enter into force around January 1st, 2010," he told the European Policy Centre think-tank.
Officially, French president Nicolas Sarkozy, who currently holds the EU's rotating presidency, hopes to find a solution to overcome the Irish No vote in time for a December EU summit.
But in the executive European Commission, the European Parliament and among EU governments, the realisation is setting in that the elections and appointment of a new Commission next year will take place under the existing Nice Treaty.
Twenty-four national parliaments have approved the treaty so far - all expect Ireland, the Czech Republic and Sweden - and 18 of those countries have completed ratification, according to the European Commission.
The treaty would create a more powerful foreign policy chief and a long-term president of the European Council of EU leaders, the highest political body in the union. It would also reform the decision-making system, giving more voting power to countries with the largest population.
"In order to make an entry of the treaty into force possible before June 2009, the treaty would have to be ratified by all countries before the end of February," Mr Juncker said. "It is not realistic to consider this could be done."
Taoiseach Brian Cowen is due to tell EU leaders in December how Ireland plans to proceed with the treaty.
"If I were the Irish prime minister, I would not go for a referendum in the next months," said Mr Juncker.
"Given the economic crisis, given the fact that confidence is lagging, governments are increasingly unpopular all around Europe, organising a referendum on the European treaty is a dangerous path to take."
The Lisbon treaty, aimed at giving an enlarged 27-member EU stronger leadership, had been due to take effect next January until Irish voters rejected it in a referendum in June.
All 27 member states must ratify the text for it to apply. Ireland was the only EU member obliged to hold a referendum.
Reuters