BELGIANS GO the polls tomorrow, with hardline Flemish separatists forecast to prevail among Dutch-speaking voters, threatening prolonged political turmoil in the linguistically-divided country.
With socialists projected to emerge victorious in the French-speaking part of the country, the stage is set for very difficult talks to form a coalition government, as Belgium battles recession and prepares to assume the EU’s rotating presidency.
Although large numbers of voters remain undecided, the ascent of the separatist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) party has dominated the election.
This has led to renewed questioning over the country’s long-term viability, as N-VA leader Bart de Wever (39) wants in the long-term to gradually divide Belgium into two autonomous states. The far-right separatist party, Flaams Belang, has also polled well.
Belgium is split into three regions, the largest being the wealthy Dutch-speaking Flanders to the north. The second is the poorer Francophone Wallonia to the south. The third is Brussels, which is officially bilingual.
A dispute over electoral regions in the city brought down the last coalition, led by Flemish Christian Democrat Yves Leterme. His successor Marianne Thyssen has straggled behind De Waver for much of the campaign.
The linguistic divide pervades all aspects of life and political parties have been organised along language grounds since the 1960s.
Some of the popularity of Flemish nationalism has been attributed to economics. For generations Wallonia had been wealthier, but the tables turned as traditional industries pulled out and the Flemish economy grew. This has led to claims that Wallonia is an unfair drag on Flanders.
Although the majority parties from each side are usually required to form a coalition government, Mr De Waver’s separatism presents a big problem for French-speaking parties, as there is no appetite in Wallonia for a split.
As a result, his advance could reverse the long tradition under which the dominant Flemish party leads the government.
Although Mr De Wever is projected to receive a very large personal vote, he has left the door open for a French speaker to become prime minister for the first time in 36 years if that would deliver more devolution of powers to Flanders.
If opinion polls are correct, this could put Francophone socialist leader Elio di Rupo (58) in a position to seek to lead government formation with Flemish socialists.
With Belgium under pressure from the markets and the European authorities to tackle its high public debt, Mr di Rupo could face a challenge trying to pursue his leftist economic policy with other potential coalition partners.
Mr De Waver’s rise comes despite recent polls showing a large majority of people in Flanders do not want to split the country.
He says wants to initially form a Belgian confederation, with regions dominant and the central state controlling only the army, foreign policy and a handful of other portfolios. “We do not want a revolution. We do not want to declare Flanders independent overnight. But we do believe in a gradual evolution in the direction of Flanders and Europe, whereby a confederal system could act as a gentle intermediate step,” he said this week.
However, some of his most prominent candidates are already talking about full independence.
On the Francophone side, however, there is anger at the vigour of the Flemish nationalists. One prominent candidate declared last week that the French-speaking community should not be treated like a “doormat” by the Flemish.
A poll for the French daily Le Soirsaid two-thirds of French people favoured incorporating the Walloon region into France if Belgium were to split.