Liberals are expected to be diminished but victorious

AS THE polls closed early this morning (Irish time) across Canada, the Liberals under their Prime Minister, Mr Jean Chretien, …

AS THE polls closed early this morning (Irish time) across Canada, the Liberals under their Prime Minister, Mr Jean Chretien, looked like holding on to power with a reduced majority in a strongly regionalised parliament.

Results for the 301 seats were later than usual in coming because voting hours were prolonged in eastern and central Canada to prevent the results there becoming known before the western provinces had finished going to the polls. There are six time zones across this vast country.

Uncertainty over the outcome was heightened by the new ban on publication of opinion polls for 72 hours before voting. The last published poll showed the Liberals' support nationwide had fallen from the 50 per cent they enjoyed for most of their term, to 39 per cent. But the key to the Liberals' success is in Ontario province, which has a third of the seats.

The drive by the rightwing Reform Party from western Canada to replace the separatist Bloc Quebecois as the largest opposition party generated as much interest as the expected Liberal win. The Reform leader, Mr Preston Manning, was preparing to take over as leader of the official opposition, the first time a western based party has been able to do so.

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The disappointing showing of the once powerful Progressive Conservatives throws a question mark over the future of the party and its young leader, Mr Jean Charest. While he raised the party's fortunes from its 1993 disastrous collapse (when it got only two seats), the final results are expected to confirm that a full recovery is still a long way off.

For the Bloc Quebecois leader, a former Communist member and student activist, Mr Gilles Duceppe, the campaign was at times nightmarish as he fumbled questions about Quebec's future status and often looked miserable. If as expected the Bloc loses some of its 54 seats, Mr Duceppe's future as leader could be short.

The five week election campaign was one of the shortest in Canadian history but also one of the least exciting. There was more interest over the weekend in the race in Toronto to determine the fastest man in the world between Canada's Donovan Bailey and the US's Michael Johnson.

Donovan Bailey's win over his greatest rival put Canadians in a good mood for polling day; but many were still wondering why they had to vote at all. Mr Chretien's gamble on calling the election 18 months ahead of time has not gone down well, and his credibility suffered when he was unable to explain his decision.

His plan to fight the election on the government's record of reducing the budget deficit, job creation and the economic challenges of the 21st century quickly fell apart as the Reform leader, Mr Manning, attacked the Prime Minister for almost "losing Canada" by his inept handling of the 1995 referendum on Quebec independence.

From then on the "national unity" issue dominated the campaign but in a way that strengthened the Quebec separatists and weakened the Conservatives.