France goes to the polls for the final round of municipal elections today, which could leave the left in charge of most major French cities and put pressure on President Nicolas Sarkozy to change his style of government.
In the first round last weekend, opposition leftist parties won 48 per cent of the overall vote against 41 per cent for the centre-right, making gains in townhalls around the country but failing to impose any shock defeats on Mr Sarkozy and his allies.
Today could change that, with the Socialists challenging hard to win control of two big southern cities, Marseille and Toulouse, and fighting to clinch a landslide victory in Paris. If its southern bastions fall, Mr Sarkozy's centre-right UMP party will be left running just two of France's top 10 cities. If it clings on to them, it will be able to shrug off anticipated losses in a slew of smaller towns.
"We are going to win back 30 medium-sized towns, but if we don't get Toulouse and Marseille people will say it isn't a great result," said Socialist party leader Francois Hollande. The election has come at a bad moment for Mr Sarkozy, whose own ratings have plunged in recent opinion polls because of voter anger over the high cost of living and his personal life, which saw him get divorced and remarried in just four months.
Chastened by the surveys, Mr Sarkozy has played little role in campaigning and although many of the election issues are local, the result is likely to have a national impact, forcing a change in the tone if not the substance of his restless presidency.
"Once the definitive results are in after the second round, all political leaders, myself first of all, will have to draw the lessons from the election," said Mr Sarkozy, who has lost his aura of self-confidence after just 10 months in office.
Political sources suggest the president will announce a limited cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday, possibly creating a handful of new posts, including a secretary of state to oversee the development of the greater Paris region.
He will almost certainly leave his main ministers in place and instead shake up his team at the Elysee Palace, with speculation that his spokesman David Martinon faces the axe following a botched campaign to become mayor of a Paris suburb. He is also expected to order changes within the UMP party.
Whatever the result, Mr Sarkozy and the increasingly popular Prime Minister Francois Fillon have both made clear they will pursue plans to shake up France's creaking institutions, free up the economy and slim down the public sector workforce.
"The lesson that I draw (from the vote) is that we need to accelerate the rhythm of reforms and show that all the promises we made have been met," Mr Fillon said on Thursday.
Mr Fillon has won plaudits for his performance on the hustings and many of his ministers, seeking local powerbases, secured strong results in the first round ballot. This indicated that voters were dissatisfied with Mr Sarkozy rather than the cabinet. However, a few ministers face tough second round contests, including Economy Minister Christine Lagarde and Education Minister Xavier Darcos. Defeat for them at the local level could cause them eventual damage on the national stage.