LEBANON: The Lebanese opposition has claimed victory in a final phase of polling which took place in the north of the country yesterday. The win, if confirmed, may give the anti-Syrian alliance a majority in the parliament and allow them to steer Lebanon away from its dominant neighbour.
"We are heading for a landslide in north Lebanon. We'll easily get the 21 seats necessary for the parliament majority," an official at Saad al-Hariri's parliamentary Future bloc said.
The pro-syrian leader Suleiman Franjieh conceded his bloc were heading for defeat last night.
Pro- and anti-Syrian electoral lists yesterday competed for 28 of the national assembly's 128 seats in the first parliamentary poll since Damascus pulled its troops and intelligence operatives out of the country at the end of April.
Some 700,000 Lebanese were eligible to vote in this round for electoral lists representing 18 sectarian communities.
Parliament is divided equally between Christians and Muslims. This arrangement weights the vote heavily in favour of the Christian community which accounts for about 30 per cent of the population.
During the three earlier rounds held on consecutive Sundays, 44 seats - the largest number - were won by candidates associated with one of the anti-Syrian opposition bloc headed by Sunni businessman Saad Hariri.
He is the son of former prime minister Rafik Hariri, whose assassination in February was blamed on Damascus and led to Syria's withdrawal after 29 years of direct intervention.
The pro-Syrian Shia alliance comprising the Islamist Hizbullah movement and the secular Amal party won 35 seats.
Third, with 21, was the list headed by Maronite Catholic Michel Aoun, a former army commander who staged a rebellion against Syria and was exiled to France in 1990 at the end of the 15-year civil war.
Although he claimed that he was the only Lebanese politician who did not "collaborate with Syria" when Damascus held sway, Aoun was shunned by the anti-Syrian opposition and made tactical electoral alliances with key Syrian allies, former Premier Omar Karami and Suleiman Frangie, a minister in previous pro-Syrian governments.
Aoun's compromises transformed the election from being a straightforward fight between pro- and anti-Syrian factions into a contest among the very traditional tribal, clan and confessional leaders who have dominated the Lebanese political scene since France imposed the sectarian model on the country in the 1930s.
Aoun's dramatic return to Lebanon six weeks ago at the start of the campaign also divided and weakened the anti-Syrian opposition, headed by Saad Hariri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, which had expected to win a majority by a landslide.
Consequently, Hariri's list needed to win 21 seats in yesterday's round to secure control.
Whatever the outcome, Hariri is likely to be Lebanon's next prime minister, a post which always goes to a Sunni Muslim, while the current speaker of parliament, Najib Berri, the Amal chief, is set to retain his position.