PEOPLE suffering pre election stress are exhibiting disturbing new symptoms. When attacks are at their most acute, some sufferers inexplicably lose their ability to count. There had been previous random indicators of this phenomenon. But commentators and number crunchers have seen it decisively at work in the past week.
Last Wednesday night Labour's shadow cabinet decided to home in on the BSE crisis, and duly tabled a censure motion against the Agriculture Minister, Mr Douglas Hogg. This appeared to offer Labour the chance of several days useful publicity highlighting a problem which the government is deemed to have handled incompetently, and which has cost the taxpayers some £3 billion. But it offered no more than that.
Alas for Tony Blair, his deputy, John Prescott, and others in the high command decided to hype the anti Hogg move. And within hours it had spun out of control. Excitable news reports told the British people that a government defeat on Monday would be followed by a confidence vote on Tuesday, with a general election date quite possibly set by yesterday.
"Labour goes for the jugular", screamed the next day's headlines. The BBC, meanwhile, went to work preparing its coverage for the big day. There would be special live transmission of the BSE debate, and Newsnight would go on air early to bring the result of the crunch Commons vote. Notwithstanding the importance of the beef issue itself, such arrangements seemed appropriate only to record the final hours of the government. And much of the coverage for the ensuing four or five days suggested heavily that that, indeed, was what we might be about to witness.
It was all, as Downing Street might say, a load of tosh. The figures simply didn't add up. Even with the support of the nine Ulster Unionists, the combined opposition strength is only equal to that of Mr Major's government. Assuming a full turn out on the Tory side, the best Labour could hope for was a tied vote. And in such circumstances Madam Speaker has to cast her vote for the status quo.
You can, of course, never be sure on these occasions. The whips play things close to their chests. Only those who need to, actually know the state of illness which might prevent some MP or other being ambulanced in to the Westminster precincts in order to be "nodded" through. But as its happened on Monday night, it was Labour which failed to turn out in full strength. And the absence of the Rev William McCrea of the DUP further boosted the government majority, already secured by the Ulster Unionist abstentions.
The Tories made much of the fact that Mr Blair didn't bother to return to the chamber for the announcement of the result. Mr Blair, they charged, had left Mr Prescott "out to dry". The deputy leader blustered that Labour had had a good outing and won the argument. Plainly irritated, he went on to suggest that the government continued to survive courtesy of the UUP nine. Mr Prescott is plainly one of those with counting difficulties.
For while the UUP clearly used its influence to the maximum, Mr David Trimble is right (for the reasons rehearsed above) to say that he is not in a position to determine the fate of this government. That scenario (which Mr Trimble rather hopes to avoid) will arise only if, as expected, Labour wins the Wirral South by election.
And we may expect some silence from Mr Prescott about the UUP's role if Mr Blair harbours any lingering hopes that, come the moment, Mr Trimble might be disposed to help him to eject Mr Major.
"The odds on that happening, it must be said, are slight indeed. Critics can scoff that the UUP failed to secure an absolute guarantee about the lifting of the beef export ban in Northern Ireland. Mr Ken Maginnis was obliged to acknowledge that nothing is certain in dealings with Europe, where the decision ultimately will be taken. But the fig leaf of a "United Kingdom wide" approach was dropped, as Mr Hogg promised to "urge" Northern Ireland's case. As promises go, it was, on the night, stronger than anything Labour could give the North's farmers.
Moreover, the UUP has firmed up the government's promise to enhance the role of the Northern Ireland Grand Committee at Westminster. Sources last night confirmed the Irish Times report that an announcement to this effect is being prepared for the week after next.
The UUP wants the revamped committee up and running, and presumably sitting in Belfast, before the general election. All of which will increase the disposition of the majority of Mr Trimble's party to let Mr Major play it as long as he can.
The Prime Minister may yet surprise us. He apparently likes his reputation for sometimes doing the unexpected. But the received wisdom at Westminster is that he will, after all, let the Wirral by election proceed. Assuming he does, he will want to let the memory of defeat subside before facing the country. April is not impossible but the smart money is once more on May 1st.
There are no constraints on the optimum amount of notice Mr Major can give of his intentions. He could well do so as early as March 14th, to the Tory Central Council - signalling an effective six week campaign. He may have something else in mind. But if, as we have been routinely told, May 1st is his preferred date, the events of this week suggest he can make it.