Kohl predicts victory despite polls

The German Chancellor, Dr Helmut Kohl, urged his party to ignore opinion polls predicting defeat in September's federal election…

The German Chancellor, Dr Helmut Kohl, urged his party to ignore opinion polls predicting defeat in September's federal election and to prepare for the toughest campaign in Germany's post-war history.

In a two-hour speech to 1,000 delegates at a Christian Democratic Union (CDU) conference in the northern city of Bremen, Dr Kohl insisted that the party remained on course to win a record fifth term in office.

"We stand together, we'll fight together, and we are heading for victory," the Chancellor said.

The delegates gave Dr Kohl a 10-minute standing ovation, the longest he has received since he became party chairman a quarter of a century ago. Party officials compared yesterday's speech to a similar address by the Chancellor four years ago which marked a turning point in the 1994 election campaign.

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But the CDU needs little short of a miracle to prevent the opposition Social Democrats (SPD) from taking power in Bonn in four months' time under their popular candidate for Chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schroeder. The most recent opinion poll puts support for the CDU at just 35 per cent, compared to 43 per cent for the SPD.

Opposition leaders dismissed the Chancellor's speech as the swan song of a leader who has, after 16 years in office, overstayed his welcome with the electorate.

"A single speech can't change things. The position he tried to build up as a statesman has clearly fallen away in the past few weeks and months," said the SPD party manager, Mr Fritz Muntefering.

The Chancellor accused the SPD and the Greens of forming a left-wing "popular front" with the formerly communist Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS), which remains the pariah of German politics. The SPD has ruled out co-operation with the PDS in Bonn, but Social Democrats in the eastern state of Saxony Anhalt are expected to form a minority state government with PDS support.

Mr Schroeder, who hopes to win over traditionally conservative voters with his centrist policies and non-ideological approach, favoured a coalition of Social Democrats and Christian Democrats in Saxony Anhalt. But Dr Kohl claimed yesterday that his challenger's personal ambition was so great that he would happily accept PDS votes to become Chancellor. "That is the road to a left-wing republic," he said.

The Chancellor's speech, which was followed by a more aggressive performance by the CDU party manager, Mr Peter Hintze, left observers in no doubt about the party's intention to fight the election on ideological lines. The Chancellor warned that an SPD-led government would wreck Germany's fragile economic recovery, inspiring instability at home and mistrust among the country's allies abroad.

Dr Kohl received most applause for his remarks on law and order, especially his warning to foreigners living in Germany that they must obey the law. "If anyone abuses it, we'll throw them out," he told his delighted audience.

Violent attacks on foreigners are on the rise again in Germany and the extreme right-wing German People's Union (DVU) won almost 13 per cent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt's state election last month. Despite his rabble-rousing words about foreigners, Dr Kohl promised that the CDU would have nothing to do with extremists of any kind.

Dr Kohl appeared convinced yesterday that his own influence in Germany will continue into the next millennium. But few observers believe he can now win September's election and yesterday's speech may yet be remembered as the futile cry of a doomed campaigner.