The leadership of the Irish National Teachers' Organisation (INTO) which has been struggling to win support for the national pay deal, scored an important victory last night when a key Dublin branch backed the agreement.
Members of the Dublin South County branch voted in favour of the pay deal by an estimated 55:45 margin, the first Dublin branch to endorse the deal.
For the first time since balloting began over a week ago, the campaign by the leadership to win support for the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (PPF) appears to have gained some momentum. But, with many rural areas still to vote, the result remains too close to call.
Last night's vote followed a weekend of frenzied activity by the INTO leadership in which hundreds of members were contacted by party officers.
The INTO leadership warned over the weekend that it would proceed with industrial action if members rejected the deal. The hope was this would motivate members to vote.
On the basis of last night's Dublin South County vote, it would appear this strategy has been a success.
The meeting was attended by two-thirds of the branch members, well up on the figure at other branch meetings.
Last night's result means the overall outcome of the INTO ballot is very close. About 100 of the 140 INTO branches in the Republic have now voted; the union hopes that strong support in rural areas will help to counter opposition in most Dublin branches. The question now is whether there are sufficient remaining votes to reverse the trend.
The leadership of the INTO, normally a very tightly disciplined organisation, has been shaken by the level of opposition to the PPF.
The deal gives teachers a 19 per cent pay increase, a total of 1,500 extra teachers and a wide range of additional teaching supports.
But the INTO leadership underestimated opposition to the deal, which reflects concerns about the pace of change in the classroom among many teachers.
With members poised to defy their leadership for the first time in recent history, the union leadership began a strong rearguard action in the past three days.
This focussed on the positive elements on the deal and the potential of its new "bench-marking" pay mechanism which links teachers' pay to that in the private sector. The union has also told members there is no question of performance-related pay.
The INTO vote is being monitored closely in Government circles ahead of the special ICTU conference on the PPF on March 23rd. The Government will be heartened by last night's vote. Some concern has been raised that the INTO vote could have a knock-on effect on other unions, but this now seems less likely.
The Government will know the definitive view of teachers by the end of the week because the Teachers' Union of Ireland (TUI) - the third of the three unions - will also be presenting the results of its ballot. Because this is a postal ballot, not taken on a branch basis, there are no real indications of its outcome.
The ASTI said yesterday it was deferring the submission of its 30 per cent pay claim until congress votes on PPF on March 23rd. It planned to lodge its claim officially today with the Teachers' Conciliation Group, which considers issues between teachers and the various education partners. The ASTI president, Ms Bernadine O'Sullivan, however, said "the ASTI is determined to pursue a claim for a 30 per cent pay increase for its members vigorously".