THE KENYAN army has advanced to within 5km of the southern Somali town of Afmadow, five days into an offensive designed to secure the border with its troublesome northern neighbour.
However, heavy rain has bogged down troops and tanks, even as the Kenyan army claimed a series of early successes against members of the al-Qaeda affiliated Islamist group al-Shabaab.
“We’ve effectively reduced their capacity to fight,” said Major Emmanuel Chirchir, a spokesman for the Kenyan army. “We’ve killed 73 members of al-Shabaab and seized many of their technical vehicles that had anti-aircraft guns mounted on top of them, but the rain is really pounding down, which has heavily affected the movement of our troops.”
Following the abductions of several foreigners in Kenya by suspected militants, the Kenyan government sent troops over the border on Sunday with the aim of taking key towns controlled by al-Shabaab, which is accused of carrying out the kidnappings.
However, doubts have been raised as to their ability to fight a drawn-out campaign.
“In a head-to-head battle, the Kenyans should have fairly quick successes against Shabaab. The danger is that in the longer term Shabaab may be able to use the emotive issue of foreign troops on Somali soil to raise funds and support,” said Roger Middleton, a researcher with the Africa programme at Chatham House in London.
In 2006, Ethiopia invaded Somalia, only to find itself bogged down in a protracted guerrilla war that killed up to 3,000 Ethiopian troops, according to some estimates. On Tuesday, the al-Qaeda linked militants detonated a suicide bomb in the capital city Mogadishu, near the foreign ministry where the Kenyan defence and foreign minister were meeting their Somali counterparts. At least four people were killed and 15 injured in the blast.
“The lesson from Ethiopia’s intervention is that the presence of Ethiopian troops in Somalia actually made the situation worse,” said Mr Middleton.
Afmadow is 90km north of Kismayo, a port town where some of the kidnapped foreigners are being held. They include a British woman taken from her campsite in northern Kenya last month and two Spanish aid workers with Médecins San Frontières, who were abducted in Dadaab refugee camp last week.
On Wednesday, France’s foreign ministry said a French woman kidnapped three weeks ago had died. Marie Dedieu (66) probably died because her kidnappers “refused to give her the medication we sent her”, the ministry said in a statement.