The question now is not if Fine Gael will lead the next government but rather what kind of Fine Gael-led government we will get
THE LATEST Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, conducted on Thursday and Friday last, shows voters will place their trust in Fine Gael this coming Friday.
The party now attracts 37 per cent of first-preference votes, an increase of four points since the start of the campaign and the highest Fine Gael poll rating since 1985.
The other, equally newsworthy, Fine Gael statistic in this poll is the 37 per cent satisfaction rating achieved by its leader Enda Kenny, up seven points and his highest personal satisfaction rating since 2008.
Labour have dropped five points since campaigning began, and now enjoy just 19 per cent support. The party peaked at 33 per cent in our September 2010 poll, at a time when Labour and the zeitgeist seemed to be perfectly in tune.
Since then, the mood of the nation has changed and Labour appear to be struggling to make the same connection. That said, they have gained proportionately more than any other party since the 2007 election and look set to make significant seat gains.
They show a higher than average “soft” vote with 38 per cent of Labour voters saying they may still change their minds, eight points higher than the voter average. There is still some work for the party to do to ensure it converts these intending voters.
Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has also seen his personal satisfaction rating slip to 40 per cent, a drop of four points, leaving him still the most popular party leader but by a much narrower margin.
The more combative stance taken by Labour towards Fine Gael in the past week does not appear to have had the desired effect, or not yet at least. The chosen media for the offensive – traditional advertising – was surprising. But it surprised many to see Michael McDowell climb a lamppost in 2002 to make a similar point.
Whether Labour’s strategy will work or not will depend on whether voters fear a single-party Fine Gael government as much as they feared a single-party Fianna Fáil government back in 2002.
Fianna Fáil have nudged one point higher, to 16 per cent. Micheál Martin appears to have steadied the ship but faces an uphill battle to make significant gains before election day.
His personal satisfaction rating is up four points to 29 per cent; however, his dissatisfaction rating has also jumped to 48 per cent, an increase of 10 points. Both these increases have been made possible by the drop in “no opinion” responses as voters get to know the new leader and feel able to comment on his performance.
It would be surprising if Fianna Fáil register less than 16 per cent support on the day. Those voters who have decided to stick with the party despite the onslaught of recent times are, it would be reasonable to conclude, unlikely to change their allegiances at this late stage. And there is nothing in the party’s voter profile to suggest the Fianna Fáil vote is soft or that Fianna Fáil voters will not come out to vote.
Sinn Féin, on 11 per cent (down one point), have not managed to capitalise on the Fianna Fáil collapse, appearing anchored to its core vote except for the Pearse Doherty bounce in December of last year. Sinn Féin’s ultra-left economic policies in all likelihood have placed a ceiling on the party’s vote, especially at a time when the electorate and the media are fixated on economic issues.
Turnout will be key for Sinn Féin. The party relies heavily on younger, working-class voters for support and needs these two segments to come out in force on the day. On the plus side for Sinn Féin, its base is the most sure-minded of all with 82 per cent “definite” about their decision to vote Sinn Féin compared to a voter average of just 68 per cent.
Satisfaction with Gerry Adams’s performance has been remarkably consistent over the past two years, not unlike the performance of the party he leads. Currently he registers a 29 per cent satisfaction rating, up two points.
The Green Party is on 2 per cent, up one point. They enjoyed more than double this level of support going into the last election. Of course, it is difficult to estimate how this level of support will translate into seats, except to say it will be difficult for Green TDs to be returned if their personal vote has halved in the interim.
John Gormley has benefited modestly from the relative freedom of an election campaign, gaining four points to record a 19 per cent satisfaction rating.
Independents/Others, on 15 per cent, are unchanged since the last poll. Independents and smaller party candidates did not make any electoral gains during the recession, that is until the EU-IMF bailout brought public disenchantment with the handling of our economy to a new level and the search for fresh thinking took on a greater urgency.
The question everyone has been asking is: will Fine Gael win enough of the vote to form a government without Labour? With 37 per cent support Fine Gael will struggle to win enough seats to form a government with like-minded Independents, even taking into account a seat bonus.
So is there potential for Fine Gael to achieve more than 37 per cent of first-preference votes on Friday and be in a position to form a stable single-party government?
In their favour is the party’s demographic profile. Among the professional classes (ABs) the party attracts 53 per cent support. Fine Gael also performs well among voters from farming backgrounds (64 per cent support) and those aged 55 years or older (41 per cent support). What these three cohorts have in common is that they tend to be more likely to vote than other segments of the population. This could work in Fine Gael’s favour on the day, especially if the turnout is low.
On the other hand, timing is everything. And in much the same way as Labour may wish the election had been last year, Fine Gael may wish it had been last week. In the 2007 election the mood shifted in the last few days of the campaign, to the benefit of Fianna Fáil, so there is no guarantee Fine Gael will carry through this momentum.
The final leaders’ debate is also deemed to have been a hugely influential event in the 2007 campaign, so tomorrow evening’s clash could yet influence voters. Enda Kenny has everything to lose, which can be a difficult position from which to debate.
Our latest poll was conducted with one week to go. And while a week in politics is a long time, we are not going into this election wondering if we will get a Fine Gael-led government, just what kind of Fine Gael-led government we will get.