Supporters of the Liberal Democrat MP, Mr Charles Kennedy, the favourite to succeed the outgoing party leader, Mr Paddy Ashdown, were increasingly concerned yesterday that he might not secure victory in the first round of the leadership ballot - and could face a tense battle with his rival Mr Simon Hughes.
As the deadline for the postal ballot of 90,000 Liberal Democrat members closed yesterday, ending eight weeks of campaigning, Mr Hughes - Liberal Democrat MP for Southwark North - played down his chances of winning. But it is thought his recent attacks on the government, and in essence his party's close association with Labour, may have won him key votes if Mr Kennedy does not win on the first count.
Claiming he "hadn't a clue" whether he would win on Monday, Mr Hughes, a left-leaning barrister, said he would continue the Lib-Lab pact if he were elected leader. "There is a clear issue as to whether we continue the deal that Paddy and his predecessors entered into before the last election. I've said yes to that, Charles has said yes to that and the cabinet committee on constitutional matters will carry on and we will use it to the full," he said.
Although Mr Kennedy began the race as the strongest candidate by far and is expected to poll the largest number of votes in the first round, his shifting position on the Lib-Lab pact has confused some voters. Yesterday his supporters were predicting success, but played down his chances of gaining the 50 per cent threshold in the first round needed to win the leadership outright. "It's very difficult to predict how the second preferences will be allocated but we are confident that we are going to win on Monday," a spokeswoman said.
The new Liberal Democrat leader will be elected under a form of proportional representation - the Alternative Vote system. Members select candidates in order of preference, but if no candidate wins 50 per cent of the vote in the first round the following rounds progressively eliminate low-scoring candidates by distributing their votes to the other candidates according to preference.
The danger to Mr Kennedy, supported by more than half of the party's 46 MPs, is that if he does not pass the 50 per cent threshold in the first count most of Mr Hughes's second preference votes will be distributed among the other three candidates - Ms Jackie Ballard, Mr Malcolm Bruce and Mr David Rendel.
All five candidates now face a tense weekend waiting for the count to begin on Monday morning, with the new leader being announced at the Royal Common wealth Society in London at about 3 p.m. After Mr Kennedy and Mr Hughes, Ms Ballard is the third strongest candidate.
She has a high profile and is expected to do well with her camp predicting that a rise in the ABC vote - "Anyone but Charles" - during the campaign could mean a significant number of ordinary members will support her candidacy.