Only 10,000 full-time farmers will be left by 2025 compared to just over 40,000 now if current trends continue, according to a Government-funded report to be launched today by Minister for Agriculture Mary Coughlan, writes Seán Mac Connell, Agriculture Correspondent
The report on rural Ireland, drawn up by scientists from NUI Maynooth, University College Dublin and Teagasc, the agriculture and food development authority, warns of an "unacceptable regional balance in Ireland's economy" in 20 years. It predicts "serious failures to achieve the declared [Government] policy goals for rural Ireland".
"It is unlikely that by 2025 Ireland will have appreciably more than 10,000 full-time commercial farmers, comprising predominantly dairy farmers, 1,000 or so commercial dry stock farmers, with roughly a similar number of sheep producers and a few hundred pig enterprises," it said.
The report, which has been seen by The Irish Times and states as its aim "to provide perspectives of Irish rural and coastal areas to 2025", says population, commercial agriculture and modern enterprises will be even more concentrated in the east and south of the country than at present.
Rural areas, especially in the northwest and north midlands, will lag behind in communications and other infrastructure, particularly as EU funds will not be available for further development.
The report states that if what it calls current trends continue, there will be "a dramatic reduction in farmer numbers, lower agricultural prices, and widespread decline in commercial farming". Lower volumes of farm output will threaten the viability of agri-food processing, says the report, which notes that already food processing companies are importing raw materials from abroad.
It says that while the amount of forestry "will almost double" Ireland will still be well under EU averages and the value of forestry and wood product will not increase to the same extent.
The report also predicts that the the marine sector will not have reached "its inherent potential, especially in terms of value added in the seafood and renewable energy sectors".
Should present policies be pursued, the report continues, the provision of public goods from natural resources, and reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, will not be achieved. There will be no easing of pressure on the environment, with continued pollution from septic tanks from one-off rural housing.
Of other rural dwellers, the report states: "Developments in the broader rural economy will not offset losses and other weaknesses in the natural resource sectors. Growth in exports from the dominant indigenous enterprises will remain relatively low."
It predicts a slowdown in building, however, saying: "It is likely that a large part of manufacturing output from foreign-owned enterprises will move to lower-cost economies. In these circumstances, employment in building and construction will not continue at current high levels."
Putting forward proposals to advance rural development, the report says the National Spatial Strategy could, if implemented in conjunction with successive regionally focused national plans, result in a more balanced distribution of population and economic activity throughout the country.
It argues for the introduction of rapid communications and supporting infrastructure, and suggests the rural economy could sustain more competitive enterprises through the development of additional entrepreneurial and management skills.
This would be further enhanced by innovation in products, business organisations and marketing.
The agri-food industry could have a more developed business and technological product portfolio selling in international markets. Moreover, forestry and the marine economy could be sizeable suppliers to the energy sector.