IN THEORY Brian Ashton should learn today whether he has a realistic future as England head coach. Anyone with the faintest knowledge of Rugby Football Union politics, however, knows clear-cut decisions are not Twickenham's speciality.
Rob Andrew did not get where he is this morning by being impulsive and it will be a surprise if English rugby's latest inelegant power struggle does not rumble on for a while longer.
Nor will Ashton's job security be the first topic of conversation at the RFU's management board meeting, due to start at 9.30am. All present will first want to hear from Andrew, the RFU's director of elite rugby, whether his discussions with England's World Cup-winning captain, Martin Johnson, have borne fruit and, if not, what alternatives Andrew can offer. If they are merely told the status quo is to be maintained, the discussions could get very lively.
There are suggestions Johnson has been underwhelmed by the small print of the potential role on offer. There is no way he will take a managerial position lacking real clout, but Andrew has already promised Ashton the final say on any new team manager.
If Ashton retains complete selectorial control, Johnson's friends say he will not be interested. If he were to be handed the keys to the entire trainset, in contrast, it is hard to envisage Ashton hanging around. Severance of his contract would cost a minimum of a year's salary, believed to be between €320,000 and €450,000, possibly more if his lawyers were to pursue a claim for constructive dismissal.
Either way it is an unedifying mess. Even if Johnson concludes the time is not right to dip his toes in such poisonous waters, the RFU's clumsy handling of team affairs since the World Cup has left Ashton in a no-win situation.
He, like Andy Robinson before him, wanted a team manager but was unable to secure one.
Andrew's post-World Cup review recommended retaining the existing coaching staff but subsequent inconsistent performances and mutterings from within the squad have alarmed influential club figures. Some high-profile former players have noted the instant success Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards have had with Wales and wondered aloud if the same clarity of leadership is a feature of England's preparations.
It is for that reason that Andrew will have to tread warily today. Having reappointed Ashton only five months ago he will be closely questioned if it is suspected he only spoke to Johnson to pacify the hawkish elements within the RFU.
Opting not to employ someone of Johnson's standing, however, will provoke accusations Andrew does not want anyone who might rock the boat. Johnson has already accepted a position on the new Professional Game Board which is set to administer the elite game and Premier Rugby's chief executive, Mark McCafferty, described him yesterday as "a unique force in the English game".
Regardless of what happens, McCafferty wants Johnson to remain on the 12-man board which also includes the latter's ex-England team-mate Jason Leonard.
Another former England prop, Jeff Probyn, is less convinced. "Rob needs his head examined if he recommends bringing Martin Johnson in," said Probyn. "He has no experience of management or administration, even at club level. It would be the same as putting Lawrence Dallaglio or Will Carling in that position. They'd have strong ideas about the players that should be picked or the way the game should be played. If you did put a manager like that in there you'd expect Brian to resign."
Premier Rugby, meanwhile, has warned the BBC it is unhappy about the amount of Premiership action being aired on terrestrial television. At present only 12 half-hour highlights shows are being shown, compared with 33 live games per season on Sky. "We don't believe it does the game justice," said Jon Varney, Premier Rugby's commercial director.
Meanwhile, Dallaglio seems certain to miss at least part of the run-in to his retirement at the end of the season, after being cited following Wasps' English Cup semi-final against Leicester on Saturday. The Wasps number eight is alleged to have hit an unnamed player - thought to be Julian White. The tariff for the offence runs from two to seven weeks.
Wasps have seven games left in the Premiership and are three places and eight points away from the play-offs, which could extend their captain's career. He is due to appear before a disciplinary panel on Tuesday but Wasps could pre-empt any action, standing Dallaglio down for Saturday's game with Leicester, away, in the Premiership.
Saracens yesterday announced their All Black lock, Chris Jack, will miss the rest of the season. The 29-year-old damaged tendons in a hand in the 30-3 defeat by the Ospreys and has had surgery.
"It's a blow for the club and more importantly for Chris, who has quickly settled in England," said Alan Gaffney, Saracens' director of rugby.
Guardian Service